Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

Using Lanczos filtered simulation results from the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere model, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal structure of temperature and precipitation on centennial time scale to examine how climate change in eastern China responded to external forcing during the last millennium. The conclusions are (1) eastern China experienced a warm-cold-warm climate transition, and the transition from the warm period to the cold period was slower than the cold to warm transition which followed it. There was more rainfall in the warm periods, and the transitional peak and valley of precipitation lag those of temperature. The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. (2) The spatial pattern of the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature on centennial time scale is consistent with that on the inter-annual/inter-decadal (IA-ID) time scales; namely, the entirety of eastern China is of the same sign. This pattern has good coherence with effective solar radiation and the concentrations of greenhouse gases. The first leading EOF mode of precipitation on centennial time scale is totally different from that on the IA-ID time scales. The first leading mode of centennial time scale changes consistently over the entirety of eastern China, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are the opposite to the rest of eastern China is the leading spatial pattern on IA-ID time scale. The distribution of precipitation on centennial time scale is affected by solar irradiance and greenhouse gas concentrations.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450?C1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400?C1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes

Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.     

从MWP看20世纪全球变暖

气候变暖已引起全球的广泛关注,正确的认识当前的气候变化已成为亟待解决的问题．目前的主流观点虽然认为近几十年的升温是由人类活动导致的,但许多学者发现MWP时期的气温与现代相当甚至更暖．结合国内外学者对MWP的研究,对比了MWP与现代暖期的温暖程度,指出20世纪暖期并不是过去千年最暖的世纪,现代升温可能只是气候冷暖波动中的一次自然现象,是uA过后的正常回暖．因此对MWP的认识对于人们深入认识当前全球变暖的性质和原因,具有十分重要的意义．     

气温变化的层次结构与未来气候变化趋势预测

用子波变换分析了Jones和Vinnikov南北半球近百年来气温资料,确定了气温变化的层次结构。结果发现,北半球在1923年前后、南半球在1939年前后发生了一次较大时间尺度的冷暖突变。提出了预测未来气候变化趋势的新思路,即根据气温变化的层次结构和不同层次的冷暖期特征时间尺度,预测未来气候变化。认为在北半球1923至2001年为大暖期,从2001年起将进入大冷期,大冷期约有77年;1991年至2001年是大暖期中相对凉爽的时期,80年代的增温事件将从1991年起趋于缓和。     

Debating about the climate warming

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.     

Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium

Since the 1990s, under the auspicious impetus of two international research programs, the “Past Global Changes” (PAGES) and the “Climate Variability and Pre- dictability” (CLIVAR), massive research work has been carried out on climate and environment changes over the past 2000 years[1-3]. But majority of the studies has been centered on obtaining various kinds of climatic proxy data (such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake cores) and focused on the reconstruction of…     

Differences between dynamics factors for interannual and decadal variations of rainfall over the Yangtze River valley during flood seasons

The prediction of rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, especially, during flood seasons is the main means for scientists in China working on and the understanding of rainfall-associated processes is a crucial component of this effort. It can be derived f…     

1951—2014年淮河流域典型等值线变化特征

利用1951—2014年淮河流域29个站点月平均气温和月降水量数据,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验及空间分析等方法,分析了1月均温和年降水量的时空变化特征.结果表明:过去64 a,1月均温呈显著升高趋势,升高速率为0.3℃/10a,1986年以后升温趋势显著,并于1973年发生升温突变;年代际方面,20世纪50年代均温最低,20世纪90年代均温最高.年降水量呈不显著减少趋势,减少速率为5.9 mm/10a;年代际降水量波动幅度不大,其中21世纪00年代平均降水量最高,21世纪10年代平均降水量最少.相较于淮河流域年均温变化,1月均温发生暖化突变时间早于年均温,说明1月均温在响应全球变暖方面更加敏感.过去64 a,1月0℃等温线和800 mm等降水量线与秦岭—淮河一线不重合,其主要原因是全球变暖导致的自然带显著北移.     

Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10?C13-year, and 3?C7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305?C1315, 1420?C1430, and 1625?C1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120?C160-year, 60?C70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12?C22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar activity.     

Strengthening of the boreal winter Hadley circulation and its connection with ENSO

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is carried out for the year-to-year variability of the boreal winter (DJF) mass stream function of the mean meridional circulation (MMC) during the period 1948—2005. The results demonstrate that it is dominated by the equatorially asymmetric and symmetric modes. Further analysis shows that the former mode is linked with the boreal winter Hadley cell mainly on the decadal time-scale, and the latter on the interannual time-scale. The asymmetric mode index (AMI) with a clear upward trend contributes to the decadal strengthening of the boreal Hadley circulation, and is closely correlated with the tropical SST warming, especially in the region of Indo-west Pacific warm pool (INWP). Furthermore, the AMI also contributes to the abrupt change of the correlation coefficient between the boreal Hadley circulation and ENSO after 1976. The symmetric mode index (SMI) with robust and stable linkage with ENSO shows a significant interannual variability, suggesting that the variability of the Hadley circulation is mainly associated with ENSO on the interannual time-scale.     

Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets

Observations from Earth-orbiting satellites have been a key component in monitoring climate change for the past two decades. This has become possible with the availability of air temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) since 1979, sea surface temperatures from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) since 1982 and, most recently, measurements of atmospheric water vapour content from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) since 1987. Here we present a detailed comparison of each pair of these three time series, focusing on both interannual and decadal variations in climate. We find a strong association between sea surface temperature, lower-tropospheric air temperature and total column water-vapour content over large oceanic regions on both time scales. This lends observational support to the idea of a constant relative humidity model having a moist adiabatic lapse rate. On the decadal timescale, the combination of data sets shows a consistent warming and moistening trend of the marine atmosphere for 1987-1998.     

The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.     

The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.     

年际和年代际气候变化的全球时空特征比较

5利用1950－1998年全球海洋同化分析资料和全球大气再分析资料，分析比较了全球海气系统年际和年代际变化的主要时空特征。结果表明：1）全球上层海洋年际变化主要为位于热带太平洋的ENSO模态，年代际变化最显区域中纬度海洋、赤道外热带东太平洋和大西洋及南半球高纬度区域；2）全球大气年际和年代际变化均主要位于中高纬地区尤其是两极地区，在年际时间尺度上，气温异常和气压异常没有明显的对应关系，但在年代际时间尺度上，气温增暖（变冷）常常伴随着气压的降低（升高）；3）在年际时间尺度上，发生在中高纬度陆地地区的大气年际变化和主要发生在热带海洋的上层海洋年际变化没有一致性的内在联系，前主要表现为大气内部（浑沌）变化，而后主要为热带海气相互作用产生的ENSO变化；4）在年代际时间尺度上，全球海洋大气系统大约在20世纪70年代均一致性地经历了一次跃变，其结果导致80年代以来，全球大范围地区（尤其是两极和西伯利亚地区）气温明显偏暖，赤道两侧的热带东太平洋、北美和南美西海岸及非洲西海岸等海域海表温度偏高，伴随着这种全球大范围背景增暖现象，青藏高原北部地区和格陵兰岛气温具有变冷趋势，而中纬度北太平洋和南半球高纬度海域海表温度也表现为降低。     

How would global-mean temperature change in the 21st century?

The time series of HadCRUT3 global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) anomaly, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index, and the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) were utilized, and their long-term trends and multiple time-scale periodic oscillations were explored in this study. A long-term trend with a warming rate about 0.44°C /century during 1850–2008, two cool floors occurred respectively around 1910 and during 1950–1970, and three warm flats happened in the 1870s, 1940s and since the year 1998 were found in the GSAT. In this duration, the variability of GSAT can be well reconstructed by the quasi-21-year, the quasi-65-year, and century-scale oscillations. The recent decadal warm flat is caused by their positive phase overlapping from these three oscillations. The maximum rising temperature reached 0.26°C was simulated in 2004 by the three oscillations. The quasi-21-year and the quasi-65-year oscillations were possibly caused by solar radiation and internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Therefore, an outlook of GSAT for the 21st century was made based on the long-term trend and these three oscillations. It was expected that a cool floor and a warm flat of the GSAT would appear in the 2030s and 2060s, respectively. However, the highest warming range is predicted about 0.6°C, it is less than the threshold 2°C and IPCC projection.     

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean over the period of 1949–2003 is studied by using daily-mean NOAA/NCEP wind stress and monthly mean Reynolds SST data. The results indicate the strong negative correlation between SSTA and local wind energy input to surface waves in most of the domain at low and middle latitudes. The SST is low (high) during the years with more (less) wind energy input. The correlation coefficients are high in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the central midlatitude North Pacific at the decadal scale, and in the central tropical Pacific at the interannual scale. Vertical mixing processes in the upper ocean are closely associated with wind energy input, indicating that wind energy input may play an important role in interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean via regulating vertical mixing.     

Key points on temperature change of the past 2000 years in China

Itisimportanttostudythetemperaturechangeduringthepast 2 0 0 0 yearsforunderstandingtheis suessuchasthegreenhouseeffectandglobalwarminginducedbyhumanactivities .Chinahasadvantagesinreconstructinghistoricalclimatechangeforitsabun dantdocumentedhistoricalrecordsandothernaturalevidenceobtainedfromtreerings ,lakesediments ,icecores ,andstalagmite .SinceDr .Chulaidafounda tiononthestudyoftemperaturechangeinChinaforthepast 5 0 0 0 years[1] ,significantprogressinthestudyoftemperaturechangeofthepast 2…     

Multi-spatial variability modes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The multi-spatial variability modes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) are identified in the natural coupled simulation of two climate models, the MOC either oscillates at decadal scales with strong cross- equatorial flow or fluctuates locally at interannual scales with weaker cross-equatorial flow. Former studies mainly emphasize the paleo-environmental and paleo-climatic impacts of the meridional overturning states transition; this analysis indicates the existence of the multi-spatial variability modes of the MOC at interannual to decadal scales. Further analysis indicates that the conventionally used MOC index, which is defined as the maximum zonal mean meridional stream-function of the North Atlantic, cannot properly describe the multi-spatial variability characteristics of the MOC.