A proto-Normal Star Almanac dating to the reign of Artaxerxes III: BM 65156

Babylonian methods for predicting planetary phenomena using the so-called goal-year periods are well known. Texts known as Goal-Year Texts contain collections of the observational data needed to make predictions for a given year. The predictions were then recorded in Normal Star Almanacs and Almanacs. Large numbers of Goal-Year Texts, Normal Star Almanacs and Almanacs are attested from the early third century BC onward. A small number of texts dating from before the third century present procedures for using the goal-year periods to predict planetary phenomena. In addition, two texts, one dating to the late sixth century BC and the other to the late fifth century BC, contain planetary data which was probably predicted using these methods. In this article, I discuss a further example of a tablet dating from before the third century BC which contains planetary data predicted using the goal-year periods. I show that the planetary phenomena contained in this tablet can be dated to the twelfth year of the reign of Artaxerxes III (347/6 BC) and that they were predicted using goal-year periods without the application of the kind of corrections which were used in the third century BC texts in order to produce more accurate predictions.

     

A Study of Babylonian Observations of Planets Near Normal Stars

The present paper is an attempt to describe the observational practices behind a large and homogeneous body of Babylonian observation reports involving planets and certain bright stars near the ecliptic (Normal Stars). The reports in question are the only precise positional observations of planets in the Babylonian texts, and while we do not know their original purpose, they may have had a part in the development of predictive models for planetary phenomena in the second half of the first millennium B.C. The paper is organized according to the following topics: (I) Sections 1–3 review the format of the observations and the texts in which they are found; (II) Sections 4–6 discuss the composition of the Normal Star list; (III) Sections 7–8 concern the orientation of the reported celestial directions from star to planet; (IV) Sect. 9 concerns the relationship between the reported distances and the actual angular distances between planet and star; and (V) Sect. 10 discusses the reports of planetary stations, which are the most common reports giving precise locations of planets when they are not near their closest approach to stars, and draws some brief general conclusions about the utility of the Babylonian observations for estimating planetary longitudes and calibrating models in antiquity.I wish to thank Lis Brack-Bernsen, John Britton, Peter Huber, Hermann Hunger, Teije de Jong, Norbert Roughton, John Steele, and Noel Swerdlow for comments on drafts of the paper, for access to work before publication, and for help in various forms.     

Celestial Measurement in Babylonian Astronomy

Late Babylonian astronomical texts contain frequent measurements of the positions of the Moon and planets. These measurements include distances of the Moon or a planet from a reference star and measurements of the position of celestial bodies within a sign of the zodiac. In this paper, I investigate the relationship between these two measurement systems and propose a new understanding of the concepts of celestial longitude and latitude in Babylonian astronomy. I argue that the Babylonians did not define latitude using the ecliptic but instead considered the Moon and each planet to move up or down within its own band as it travelled around the zodiac.     

Greek angles from Babylonian numbers

Models of planetary motion as observed from Earth must account for two principal anomalies: the nonuniform speed of the planet as it circles the zodiac, and the correlation of the planet’s position with the position of the Sun. In the context of the geometrical models used by the Greeks, the practical difficulty is to somehow isolate the motion of the epicycle center on the deferent from the motion of the planet on its epicycle. One way to isolate the motion of the epicycle center is to determine the longitude and time of oppositions of the planet with the mean Sun. A Greek astronomer might have realized that the predictions of mean oppositions by Babylonian models could serve as useful proxies for real empirical observations. It is shown that a Greek astronomer with a reasonable understanding of Babylonian System A models for the outer planets and the Sun–Moon could have used those models to estimate approximate values for the eccentricity e and longitude of apogee A required for geometrical models. The same method would work for the inner planets if conjunctions were observable, but they are not, and the variation of the observable synodic events—first and last morning and evening visibilities—is dominated more by the motion of the planet in latitude than the nonuniform motion of the epicycle center.     

A consideration of Babylonian astronomy within the historiography of science

This paper traces the reception of Babylonian astronomy into the history of science, beginning in early to mid twentieth century when cuneiform astronomical sources became available to the scholarly public. The dominant positivism in philosophy of science of this time influenced criteria employed in defining and demarcating science by historians, resulting in a persistently negative assessment of the nature of knowledge evidenced in cuneiform sources. Ancient Near Eastern astronomy (and astrology) was deemed pre- or non-scientific, and even taken to reflect a stage in the evolution of thought before the emergence of science (in ancient Greece). Two principal objections are examined: first, that the Near East produced merely practical as opposed to theoretical knowledge and, second, that astronomy was in the service of astrology and religion. As the notion of a universal scientific method has been dismantled by post-positivists and constructivists of the second half of the twentieth century, an interest in varieties of intellectual and cultural contexts for science has provided a new ground for the re-consideration of Babylonian astronomical texts as science developed here.     

Babylonian solar theory on the Antikythera mechanism

This article analyzes the angular spacing of the degree marks on the zodiac scale of the Antikythera mechanism and demonstrates that over the entire preserved 88° of the zodiac, the marks are systematically placed too close together to be consistent with a uniform distribution over 360°. Thus, in some other part of the zodiac scale (not preserved), the degree marks have been spaced farther apart. By contrast, the day marks on the Egyptian calendar scale are spaced uniformly, apart from minor errors. A solar equation of center is apparent which rises by nearly 2.7° over the preserved portion of the zodiac. The placement of the degree marks indicates that, in the preserved portion of the zodiac, the Sun was considered to run at a uniform pace of about 30° per synodic month, which is consistent with the Sun’s speed in the fast zone of the Babylonian solar theory of System A.

     

Writing tea’s empire

The Almagest of Ptolemy (mid-second century ad) contains eleven dated reports of observations of the positions of planets made during the third century bc in Babylon and Hellenistic Egypt. The present paper investigates the character, purpose, and conventions of the observational programmes from which these reports derive, the channels of their transmission to Ptolemy's time, and the fidelity of Ptolemy's presentation of them. Like the Babylonian observational programme, about which we have considerable knowledge through cuneiform documents, the Greco-Egyptian ones were not directed towards the deduction of mathematical models of celestial motion but appear to have investigated patterns, correlations, and periodicities of phenomena. Ptolemy's immediate sources most likely were not the original series of observational records, but treatises by various astronomers of the intervening four centuries, including Hipparchus. While Ptolemy does not appear to have tampered with the wording of the reports, he faced difficulties and uncertainties in interpreting them; critically, he lacked sufficiently detailed information about the ancient calendars to be able to convert the reported dates accurately into his own chronological framework based on the Egyptian calendar.     

Greek astronomical calendars I. The parapegma of Euctemon

Summary In view of the striking similarities noted in the subsection A, B, C we are bound to conclude that Euctemon was influenced by Babylonian astronomy. However, his parapegma was not just a translation of a Babylonian text: it was an improvement in many respects. His dates of annual risings and settings were more accurate than the Babylonian dates. In most cases he recorded true risings, or he recorded both the true and the visible phaenomena. This distinction is not made in the text MUL APIN.     

Studies in Babylonian lunar theory: part III. The introduction of the uniform zodiac

This paper is the third of a multi-part examination of the Babylonian mathematical lunar theories known as Systems A and B. Part I (Britton, AHES 61:83–145, 2007) addressed the development of the empirical elements needed to separate the effects of lunar and solar anomaly on the intervals between syzygies, accomplished in the construction of the System A lunar theory early in the fourth century B.C. Part II (Britton, AHES 63:357–431, 2009) examines the accomplishment of this separation by the construction of a successful theory depicting the variations due to lunar anomaly in System A and its subsequent adaptation in System B. The present paper examines the introduction of the uniform zodiac, necessary for any theory depicting variations depending on the position of syzygy. It addresses three questions: (1) In light of all available evidence, what is the magnitude of the constant term in the expression Δλ* = C ? 1.3828°Y, describing the difference between the Babylonian sidereal longitudes and modern tropical longitudes? (2) What considerations governed the placement of the Babylonian sidereal zodiac relative to the fixed stars? (3) When was the uniform zodiac introduced? To the first question it finds C = 3.20° ± 0.1°, scarcely different from Huber’s (Centaurus 5:192–208, 1958) estimate of 3.08°, essentially confirming Huber’s result obtained from much less data. For the second it shows that accommodating the three asterisms comprising Taurus limited the placement of the zodiac to within 3°, while the prominence of half sign multiples among the measured intervals between prominent Normal Stars led irresistibly to the choice adopted. Finally, it finds that the zodiac was introduced between ?408 and ?397 and probably within a very few years of ?400.     

Between Two Worlds: Yamanouchi Shigeo and Eugenics in Early Twentieth‐Century Japan

The 1935 conflict on the nature of relativistic degeneracy that pitted Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar against Arthur Stanley Eddington is part of astronomical lore. In recountings of the events surrounding the dispute, the complaint is frequently aired that Chandrasekhar, who faced the pre-eminent astrophysicist of his time, did not enjoy the support of the astronomical community, which opted to side instead with Eddington. We reconsider these statements in the light of the published record and argue that the reception of Chandrasekhar's ideas was, if anything, rather favourable and that any perceived lack of support may have been due in great part to the inability to distinguish, on an observational basis, between the predictions of the competing theories. We further argue that the observational situation improved little over the subsequent thirty years, but that this did not prevent Chandrasekhar's version of relativistic degeneracy, and associated theory of electron-degenerate stars, from gaining a central position within the realm of stellar structure and evolution. We briefly compare this status to that enjoyed by general relativity before 1960.     

Geometric division problems, quadratic equations, and recursive geometric algorithms in Mesopotamian mathematics

Most of what is told in this paper has been told before by the same author, in a number of publications of various kinds, but this is the first time that all this material has been brought together and treated in a uniform way. Smaller errors in the earlier publications are corrected here without comment. It has been known since the 1920s that quadratic equations played a prominent role in Babylonian mathematics. See, most recently, Høyrup (Hist Sci 34:1–32, 1996, and Lengths, widths, surfaces: a portrait of old Babylonian algebra and its kin. Springer, New York, 2002). What has not been known, however, is how quadratic equations came to play that role, since it is difficult to think of any practical use for quadratic equations in the life and work of a Babylonian scribe. One goal of the present paper is to show how the need to find solutions to quadratic equations actually arose in Mesopotamia not later than in the second half of the third millennium BC, and probably before that in connection with certain geometric division of property problems. This issue was brought up for the first time in Friberg (Cuneiform Digit Lib J 2009:3, 2009). In this connection, it is argued that the tool used for the first exact solution of a quadratic equation was either a clever use of the “conjugate rule” or a “completion of the square,” but that both methods ultimately depend on a certain division of a square, the same in both cases. Another, closely related goal of the paper is to discuss briefly certain of the most impressive achievements of anonymous Babylonian mathematicians in the first half of the second millennium BC, namely recursive geometric algorithms for the solution of various problems related to division of figures, more specifically trapezoidal fields. For an earlier, comprehensive (but less accessible) treatment of these issues, see Friberg (Amazing traces of a Babylonian origin in Greek mathematics. WorldScientific, Singapore 2007b, Ch. 11 and App. 1).     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy

Three experiments examined the accuracy in the Delphi method. The first experiment assessed the accuracy of group predictions over 1-, 2- and 3- month time spans. Results indicated that predictions derived from the group were more accurate than those of 95 per cent of the individual panelists, but did not exceed in accuracy the best panelists. Experiment 2 evaluated the gross contributions of polling and feedback to Delphi accuracy. The manipulations did not improve the group's ability to forecast the probabilities of the occurrence of events, but did decrease the error in predicting when the events would occur. Experiment 3 separated the effects of polling and feedback as determinants of accuracy. Neither manipulation improved the accuracy of the group's predictions of whether an event would occur. The effect of iterated polling was to reduce the group's error in predicting the time course for those scenarios that did occur.     

The Eclipse,the Astronomer and his Audience: Frederico Oom and the Total Solar Eclipse of 28 May 1900 in Portugal

This study offers a detailed analysis of an episode of the popularization of astronomy which took place in Portugal, a peripheral country of Europe, and occurring in the early twentieth century. The episode was driven by the 28 May 1900 total solar eclipse which was seen on the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain). Instead of focusing on one of the ends of the popularization process, we analyze the circulation of knowledge among scientists and the public, contrast the aims of the various expeditions, professional and amateur, which took place on Portuguese soil, analyze their repercussions in the Portuguese astronomical landscape, and the different ways used by the Portuguese political elite and astronomical community to successfully appropriate this astronomical event to serve their varied agendas, political, social and scientific. In this episode of public enthusiasm for science, a central figure emerged in the network of the official commission, professional and amateur communities and the ‘general public’: Frederico Tomás Oom (1864–1930), an astronomer of the Lisbon Astronomical Observatory. This paper aims to illustrate the different layers of the circulation process, and at proving that the popularization of science was not a unidirectional process from scientists to lay people nor did it serve only a particular agenda, be it political, social or scientific.     

Swedenborg's Lunars

The celebrated Swedish natural philosopher and visionary theologian Emanuel Swedenborg (1688–1772) devoted major efforts to the establishment of a reliable method for the determination of longitude at sea. He first formulated a method, based on the astronomical observation of lunar position, while in London in 1710–12. He issued various versions of the method, both in Latin and in Swedish, throughout his career. In 1766, at the age of 78, he presented his scheme for judgment by the Board of Longitude in London. The rich archive of Swedenborg's career allows an unusually detailed historical analysis of his longitude project, an analysis rather better documented than that available for the host of contemporary projectors who launched longitude schemes, submitted their proposals to the Board of Longitude, and have too often been ignored or dismissed by historians. This analysis uses the longitude work to illuminate key aspects of Swedenborg's wider enterprises, including his scheme to set up an astronomical observatory in southern Sweden to be devoted to lunar and stellar observation, his complex attitude to astronomical and magnetic cosmology, and his attempt to fit the notion of longitude into his visionary world-view. Swedenborg's programme also helps make better sense of the metropolitan and international networks of diplomatic and natural philosophical communication in which the longitude schemes were developed and judged. It emerges that his longitude method owed much to the established principles of earlier Baroque and Jesuit natural philosophy while his mature cosmology sought a rational and enlightened model of the universe.     

Viète's Controversy with Clavius Over the Truly Gregorian Calendar

Some twenty years after the Gregorian calendar reform, towards the end of his life, François Viète published his own calendar proposal. This treatise contains a sharp attack against the Jesuit scholar Clavius, the mathematical mind behind the reform. Understandably enough, Clavius prepared a negative reply. Viète heard of it and exploded in a fit of rage, ``I demonstrated that you are a false mathematician [ . . . ], and a false theologian.'' Sadly, Clavius' rejection, added as a chapter to his monumental apology of the Gregorian reform, appeared when Viète had already passed away.Viète seriously believed that the true aim of the Gregorian reform has been betrayed and he was furious about some logical inconsistencies which he claimed to have found in Clavius' calendar. Clavius apparently confused solar day and epactal day (or ``tithi''), the thirtieth part of a lunar month. This is the very core of Viète's attack against Clavius whom he accused of having introduced a false lunar period (``falsa periodus lunaris''). But his own work has some logical inconsistencies too. For instance, he reproaches Clavius for having introduced lunar months of 31 days which, indeed, are unrealistic. Grievously, his own rules can likewise give rise to lunations of unnatural lengths.In order to understand these subtle twists reader and author must work largely through both Clavius and Viète's methods of Easter reckoning. The fruit of all those efforts might be an insight into Viète's clear mathematical thinking. His calendar, however, was never considered.     

Testing universal gravitation in the laboratory,or the significance of research on the mean density of the earth and big <Emphasis Type="Italic">G</Emphasis>, 1798–1898: changing pursuits and long-term methodological–experimental continuity

This article seeks to provide a historically well-informed analysis of an important post-Newtonian area of research in experimental physics between 1798 and 1898, namely the determination of the mean density of the earth and, by the end of the nineteenth century, the gravitational constant. Traditionally, research on these matters is seen as a case of “puzzle solving.” In this article, the author shows that such focus does not do justice to the evidential significance of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century experimental research on the mean density of the earth and the gravitational constant. As Newton’s theory of universal gravitation was mainly based on astronomical observation, it remained to be shown that Newton’s law of universal gravitation did not break down at terrestrial distances. In this context, Cavendish’ experiment and related nineteenth-century experiments played a decisive role, for they provided converging and increasingly stronger evidence for the universality of Newton’s theory of gravitation. More precisely, the author shall argue that, as the accuracy and precision of the experimental apparatuses and the procedures to eliminate external disturbances involved increasingly improved, the empirical support for the universality of Newton’s theory of gravitation improved correspondingly.     

Forecasting Time Series with Trading Day Variation

Some levels of economic activity change over the days of the week. Also, the composition of the calendar changes over the years so that a particular month contains a different configuration of days of the week each year. The effects of the changing composition of the calendar upon a monthly time series is called trading day variation. This paper discusses one way to model trading day variation in monthly time series and how this model can be used to obtain improved forecasts over univariate ARIMA models. The ideas are illustrated on an actual data set.     

Observation and prediction in ancient astrology

What is the relationship between observations, predictions, texts, and instruments in ancient astrology? By distinguishing between two distinct kinds of observation claim in astrological texts, I show on the one hand the rhetorical and theoretical importance of each kind of observation claim to ancient astrological traditions, and on the other hand how practices of ancient astrology break from observation once astronomical phenomena become reliably predictable. We thus see a shift in practice from observationally derived predictions to a reliance on textual and instrumental authority, even though the rhetoric of ancient astrology still tries to maintain an emphasis on observation.