| 多变量离散灰色幂模型构建及其优化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁松,党耀国,徐宁,王俊杰,耿率帅. 多变量离散灰色幂模型构建及其优化研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2018, 40(6): 1302-1309. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.06.16 |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁松 党耀国 徐宁 王俊杰 耿率帅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏 南京 211106; 2. 南京审计大学管理科学与工程学院, 江苏 南京 211815 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对多变量小样本的非线性系统建模问题,提出了多变量离散灰色幂模型,并探讨其参数求解方法;鉴于驱动因素作用机制对模型精度的重要影响,通过引入驱动控制函数,多阶段识别起主导作用的驱动因素,构造多变量离散灰色幂模型的优化模型,并研究驱动控制函数参数识别方法,给出了模型建模预测步骤;最后,利用构建模型解决我国粮食产量预测问题,表明新模型能够更好地描述系统特征行为序列与驱动因素序列间的非线性关系,从而有效提升建模精度。
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Construction and optimization of a multi-variables discrete grey power model |
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| DING Song,DANG Yaoguo,XU Ning,WANG Junjie,GENG Shuaishuai. Construction and optimization of a multi-variables discrete grey power model[J]. System Engineering and Electronics, 2018, 40(6): 1302-1309. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.06.16 |
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| Authors: | DING Song DANG Yaoguo XU Ning WANG Junjie GENG Shuaishuai |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;;2. College of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China |
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| Abstract: | With regard to the nonlinear system having multi-variables and sparse data, a multi-variable discrete grey power model is proposed and its solution method is discussed. Considering the great effect of driving factors on the modelling precision, an optimized model is constructed by introducing a driver control function to recognize the main driving factors in driving stages. Subsequently, approaches to identifying the parameters of the driver control function are discussed and the modeling steps are listed. At last, this new proposed model is employed for forecasting China’s grain production, compared with other competing models. This experimental result shows the proposed model can better describe the nonlinear relationships between the system behaviors and the driving factors, thereby improving the accuracy of grey system modelling. |
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