| 中国过去2000年气候变化与社会发展 |
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| 引用本文： | 葛全胜,刘浩龙,郑景云,萧凌波. 中国过去2000年气候变化与社会发展[J]. 自然杂志, 2013, 35(1): 9-021 |
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| 作者姓名： | 葛全胜 刘浩龙 郑景云 萧凌波 |
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| 作者单位： | 13.研究员，2助理研究员，4博士，中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划“过去2000 年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究”(2010CB950100);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“历史文献记录的中国东部过去2000年气候变化”(XDA05080100) |
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| 摘 要： | 在前人研究的基础上，系统梳理了中国过去2000年气候变化与社会的自然、经济、人文三大亚系统发展状况间的对应关系，从数百年至数十年的时间尺度上揭示了气候变化的过程在实质上也是社会结构重新构建的过程。具体有以下结论：①尽管并非所有的暖期社会都是繁荣昌盛的，但总体上说来，“冷抑暖扬”的文明韵律十分清晰；②气候变化对社会发展的影响，通过自然-经济-人文亚系统的各个环节而逐级传导，进而产生了五个层次的气候冲击与适应；③在过去2000年气候恶化阶段，与生态环境脆弱性密切相关的贫困人群生存问题是诱发社会动乱的重要原因；④气候只是社会发展的外部条件，人对生产关系的变革才是推动古代社会发展进程的根本动力；⑤随着科学技术的不断发展, 气候变化对古代社会发展的不利影响在总体上渐趋减轻。
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| 关 键 词： | 过去2000年 气候变化 社会发展 影响 适应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-09-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-10-14 |
The climate change and social development over the last two millennia in China |
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| GE Quan-sheng,LIU Hao-long,ZHENG Jing-yun,XIAO Ling-bo. The climate change and social development over the last two millennia in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2013, 35(1): 9-021 |
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| Authors: | GE Quan-sheng LIU Hao-long ZHENG Jing-yun XIAO Ling-bo |
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| Affiliation: | 13.Professor, 2Assistant Researcher, 4Ph. D., Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ;Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | An analysis of the corresponding relationship between climate change and social development over the last two millennia in China, leads to the following conclusion that how historical climate change impacted aspects of ancient society. Firstly, warm period was beneficial to social development while cold period was not. The law was appropriate for most of ancient times. Secondly, historical climate change imposed impacts of five levels on the society, which were transmitted step by step from nature subsystem to economic and humane subsystems. Thirdly, when climate became terrible, social unrest was often closely related to the poor whose living conditions were limited by regional environmental vulnerability to a large extent. Fourthly, climate change was only the external conditions for social development, while the reform of production relations was the most important impetus to the social development. At last, with advances in science and technology, the negative impacts of climate change on society were generally reduced. |
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| Keywords: | last two millennia climate change social development impact adaptation |
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