| 青藏高原冰冻圈变化及其对区域水循环和生态条件的影响* |
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| 引用本文： | 姚檀栋 秦大河 沈永平 赵林 王宁练 鲁安新. 青藏高原冰冻圈变化及其对区域水循环和生态条件的影响*[J]. 自然杂志, 2013, 35(3): 179-186 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚檀栋 秦大河 沈永平 赵林 王宁练 鲁安新 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院院士, 中国科学院青藏高原研究所，北京 100101；2中国科学院院士, 中国气象局，北京 100080；345研究员, 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，兰州730000；6研究员, 中国科学院遥感与数字地球科学中心, 北京100101 |
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| 基金项目： | *中国科学院院士咨询项目“气候变化对青藏高原环境与生态安全屏障功能影响及适应对策” |
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| 摘 要： | 以青藏高原为中心的冰川群是中国乃至整个高亚洲冰川的核心，由于全球变暖，青藏高原冰川自20 世纪90年代以来呈全面、加速退缩趋势。作为全球最主要的高海拔冻土区，青藏高原近几十年气候变暖是冻土退化的基础因素，人为活动在局部加速了冻土退化，推测未来几十年内冻土退化仍会保持或加速。过去50 年，青藏高原积雪面积总体呈减少趋势。由于气温升高，青藏高原处于降雪和积雪临界状态的区域大大增加，导致青藏高原积雪期开始时间的推迟和结束时间的提前。冰川加速消融退缩，融水在逐年增加，冰川变化引发的水资源时空分布和水循环过程的变化，无疑将给青藏高原社会经济发展带来深刻影响。冻土及其孕育的高寒沼泽湿地和高寒草甸生态系统具有显著的水源涵养功能，是稳定江河源区水循环与河川径流的重要因素。青藏高原江河源区近几十年来生态退化和河流、湖泊、沼泽、湿地等水文环境的显著变化就与冻土退化密切相关。过去十年来由于冻胀和融沉破坏，青藏公路已经进行了多次全线性大规模的整修。在未来几十年内多年冻土的主要退化形式为地下冰的消融和低温冻土向高温冻土转化，这一过程将引起热融滑塌、热融沉陷等冻土热融灾害。为应对气候变化对青藏高原冰冻圈影响，应加强冰川融水对地表水和冰川融水补给河流的水文过程与预测研究，针对未来可能出现的各种灾害，要在科学预测和普查的基础上评价灾害风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰冻圈 气候变化 影响 对策 青藏高原 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-05-18 |
Cryospheric changes and their impacts on regional water cycle and ecological conditions in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
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| YAO Tan-Dong,Qin Da-He,SHEN Yong-Beng,ZHAO Lin,WANG Ning-Lian,LU An-Xin. Cryospheric changes and their impacts on regional water cycle and ecological conditions in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2013, 35(3): 179-186 |
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| Authors: | YAO Tan-Dong Qin Da-He SHEN Yong-Beng ZHAO Lin WANG Ning-Lian LU An-Xin |
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| Affiliation: | 1.CAS Member, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2.CAS Member, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100086, China;345.Professor, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;6.Professor, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | The Tibetan Plateau is the most concentrated glacier center in the middle and low latitudes of the Earth, also the center of the glacier distribution in China and the High-Asia, feed seven of Asia’s great rivers, is the headwater of rivers that flow down to half of humanity, the called the “Water Tower of Asia”. Consistent with the global climatic warming since 1980, glacier shrinking is more serious with accelerated retreat trend since 1990. All glaciers turned to shrinking status except for some large glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau. Permafrost regions occupy approximately 53% of the land area on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and most extensive high altitude permafrost on Earth. Permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to climate change and has experienced significant temperature increases and widespread degradation during the last several decades. Over the past 50 years, the trend of snow-covered areas in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau have been decreasing. As temperatures rising, the area of the snowing and snow cover critical state have been greatly increased, resulting in beginning time delay and end date in advance of the snow cover period in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The glacier ablation is accelerating, glacier melting water has been increasing year by year,and leading to the changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the water cycle process change, will no doubt give a profound impact on social and economic development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The alpine meadow and swampmeadow ecosystem related to permafrost has an important function in water regulation, and to stabilize the local water cycle and runoff in the river systems. Thawing and degrading permafrost will have a significant impact on plateau environments and ecosystem with disastrous consequences. The permafrost thawing due to temperature rise is one of the main factors which led to the degradation of the alpine ecosystem. The ecological degradation and changes of hydrological environment of rivers, lakes, swamps, wetlands are closely related to permafrost degradation in last decades in the river source regions of the plateau. Over the past decade, several times across the board extensive renovations of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway has been carried out due to frost heave and thaw damage. In next several decades, It is predicted that air temperature will increase by 2.6℃ by the mid 2050s, and this will be climate warming transfers into permafrost temperature increases and degradation, the majority of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will thaw dramatically in the next few decades. Additional human activities, such as operations of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway/Railway and rapid development of economy, will also accelerate permafrost warming, thawing, and eventually disappearing. This process will lead to freeze-thawing disasters related to the permafrost change, such as the thaw slumping, frost heaving, thaw subsidence, frost boil. To adapt the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere of the Tibetan Plateau, we should strengthen the comprehensive and systematic monitoring of changes in glacier hydrological processes and prediction possible future disasters, evaluation of the risk ofdisasters on the basis of scientific prediction and census. |
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| Keywords: | cryosphere climate change impact countermeasure Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau |
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