| 基于模糊理论的风险评价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵远,焦健,赵廷弟. 基于模糊理论的风险评价方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37(8): 1825-1831. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2015.08.17 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵远 焦健 赵廷弟 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100191 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统风险评价过程中无法综合多人的评价结果、风险之间难以排序等问题,提出了一种基于模糊理论的风险评价方法。建立模糊风险矩阵,把可能性和严酷度放在同一尺度下讨论,引入层次分析法核心理念确定可能性和严酷度对风险的影响权重,综合多人对可能性和严酷度的评价结果,通过确定的可能性和严酷度对风险的影响权重以及综合的评价结果得到风险值。以飞行控制系统中的具体危险为例采用该方法进行评价。通过该方法确定的不同危险的风险指数可进行详细的风险排序,支持风险决策,验证了该方法的工程实用性和有效性。该方法能够更客观地评价危险,为危险的预防措施制定和管理决策提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 安全 风险 风险评价 模糊理论 决策 |
RisK assessment method based on fuzzy logic |
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| ZHAO Yuan,JIAO Jian,ZHAO Ting-di. RisK assessment method based on fuzzy logic[J]. System Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37(8): 1825-1831. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2015.08.17 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yuan JIAO Jian ZHAO Ting-di |
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| Affiliation: | School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the problem that different evaluations cannot be integrated and risks are difficult to be sorted, a novel risk assessment method based on the fuzzy theory is proposed. A fuzzy risk matrix is defined in which the possibilities and severities of risks can be discussed in a unified scale, the impact weights of risk possibility and severity are determined using pair wise comparison; risk evaluations from different analyses are synthesized; the risk level is assessed by the synthesized evaluation and impact weights. An example of the risk assessment in a specific hazard of the flight control system is introduced. The risk index of different hazards determined by the proposed method can be used to make a detail sort to support decision-making, which demonstrates the engineering practicability and effectiveness of the method. The proposed method can assess risks more objectively and supply necessary information for hazard prevention measure determination and decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | safety risk risk assessment fuzzy logic decision-making |
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