安全信息缺失事故致因理论的初步研究

为更好解释事故致因,在分析已有事故致因理论的基础上,分析了安全信息与事故致因因素之间的联系,认为安全信息是各种致因因素的信息化表述,安全信息缺失将直接或间接导致事故的发生并影响事故的发展.继而用安全信息的概念统一人、物、环境、能量和管理等事故致因因素,提出了安全信息缺失的概念和安金信息缺失事故致因理论.新理论认为安全信息缺失是造成事故发生的主要潜在原因,也是导致事故扩大的主要原因,避免关键性安全信息的缺失是预防事故发生和防止事故扩大的重点.建立了新理论的理论模型和可用于定量风险评价的数学模型.该理论为事故有效预防和系统风险评价提供了一种新思路和方法.

Preliminary Study on Theory of Accident-causing Based on Safety Information Missing

For better explaining accident-causing, based on analysis of various accident-causing theories, it is analyzed about relationship between the concept of,safety information and accident-causing factors containing human, equipment, environment, energy and management etc. It＇s found that safety information can be considered as information representation of all the accident-causing factors, and safety inforulation missing will directly or indirectly cause accidents occurring and affect accidents developing. After the concept of safety information is used for unification of all the factors and the concept of safety information missing is defined, a theory of accident causation is set forth based on safety information missing. According to the theory, safety information missing, which is main reason of unsafe human behaviors, is major potential causes of accidents, and also contributed to expansion of accidents. Based on the theory, more attention must be paid to the lack of safety in- formation in accident prevention. A theoretical model and a mathematical model of the theory have been established for the explanation of the genesis and development of accidents and the evaluation of security risk. The theory provides a new thinking of accident-causing and a method of effective accident prevention and risk assessment.