企业在市场需求及预测不确定下的多期定价研究

建立多阶段线性需求一价格模型，运用动态规划思想，针对耐用品市场需求量不确定及耐用品生产厂商市场信息预测不准的问题展开探讨。得到了如果消费者对耐用品价格的预期与耐用品生产厂商对市场的预期不一致，耐用品需求量的波动及厂商掌握信息量的多少将对耐用品生产厂商的最优定价具有影响等结论。并根据现实市场状况，对信息不对称下的耐用品定价模型的经济含义给予分析，结果表明模型对耐用品生产厂商的市场决策具有理论指导意义。

A Firm Multi-Period Pricing Decision Analysis under Demand and Forecast Uncertainty

Based on the condition of demand and forecast information uncertainty, we began our research by setting up a linear multi 唷 period demand model. By employing the principle of dynamic programming,we got some results about the durable goods manufactures' optimal pri-cing. If the anticipations between firms and consumers are inconsistency, the fluctuation of the durable goods demand and the information vol-ume controlled by the firms will influence the optimal pricing of the firms. We also gave an analysis on the pricing model based on the real market status. The results showed that the model would play a significant role on the decision of the durable goods manufactures.