Bayesian Analysis of Asymmetric Stochastic Conditional Duration Model

This paper proposes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters and log durations of the correlated or asymmetric stochastic conditional duration models. Following the literature, instead of fitting the models directly, the observation equation of the models is first subjected to a logarithmic transformation. A correlation is then introduced between the transformed innovation and the latent process in an attempt to improve the statistical fits of the models. In order to perform one‐step‐ahead in‐sample and out‐of‐sample duration forecasts, an auxiliary particle filter is used to approximate the filter distributions of the latent states. Simulation studies and application to the IBM transaction dataset illustrate that our proposed estimation methods work well in terms of parameter and log duration estimation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.