基于ZSG-DEA模型下的中国碳市场初始配额研究及区域政策分析

基于对碳排放总量控制下省域间碳排放配额进行科学分配及区域政策分析的目的,利用我国各省市2003—2013年的相关数据,分别以二氧化碳排放量、人口、GDP及能源消耗量作为投入和产出变量,以总量固定为约束寻求最优综合效率的分配模型ZSG-DEA(零和博弈DEA)作为分配方法对全国各省份进行了碳排放权的初始分配,运算结果使得每个省市的分配额都处于效率最优的状态。将此分配结果结合我国现行七个碳交易试点的实际运行情况进行分析,得出结论:科学的初始配额分配方案和监管层面的严格把控会有利于整个碳市场的后续运行,并结合该结论针对我国即将成立的全国统一碳市场提出了相关政策建议。

Initial Quota Research and Regional Policy Analysis of ChineseCarbon Market Based on ZSG-DEA Model

Based on the purpose of scientific distribution and regional policy analysis for provincial carbon emission quota under the control of total carbon emission,using the data of all provinces and cities in china from 2003 to 2013,Carbon dioxide emissions,population,GDP and energy consumption were used respectively as input and output variables,a distribution model ZSG-DEA (zero sum game DEA)for finding the optimal comprehensive efficiency with the constraint of gross fixed was used as the method of distribution,and then the initial allocation of carbon emission permits in various provinces of China were carried out,ensuring that of each province was in the state of optimal efficiency.Through the analysis of the distribution results and the actual operation of seven current carbon trading pilot in China,the conclusion was drawn:scientific initial quota allocation scheme and strict control level would be conducive to the follow-up of the entire carbon market,combined with this conclusion,some relevant policy recommendations for China`s upcoming unified national carbon market were put forward.