| 青藏高原季风的气候振荡和预测试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 董安祥,李栋梁,白虎志,张存杰.青藏高原季风的气候振荡和预测试验[J].甘肃科学学报,2000,12(4):22-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董安祥 李栋梁 白虎志 张存杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省气象局,兰州,730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目资助!(96 - 90 8- 0 5 - 0 3) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用奇异谱分析等方法，分析了1961-1995年青藏高原季风的气候振荡。结果表明：自60年代以来，季风的总趋势是加强的，即夏季青藏高原暖低压加强；冬季青藏高原冷高压减弱，这可能是对全球变暖的响应。季风的主要周期是3-4年，其次是6年，高原季风在1985年存在着由偏弱向偏强的突变。利用SSA-MEM方法可以预报春季高原季风指数未来2年的趋势和季高原季风指数未来9个季的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 季风 气候振荡 预测试验 奇异谱分析 季风指数 最大熵预报法 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-05-26 |
CLIMATIC OSCILLATION AND FORECAST TEST OF MONSOONS IN QINGZANG PLATEAU |
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| DONG An-xiang,LI Dong-liang,BAI Hu-zhi,ZHANG Cun-jie.CLIMATIC OSCILLATION AND FORECAST TEST OF MONSOONS IN QINGZANG PLATEAU[J].Journal of Gansu Sciences,2000,12(4):22-28. |
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| Authors: | DONG An-xiang LI Dong-liang BAI Hu-zhi ZHANG Cun-jie |
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| Abstract: | The climatic oscillation of monsoons in Qingzang Plateau from 1961 to 1995 was detected by using the singular spectrum analysis. Results showed that the general trend of monsoons was strengthened over the period. The warm low pressure was intensifying in summer and cold high was decreasing in winter too. This may be a response to global warming. The major periods lasted for 3~4 years and the minor ones for 6 years. There was an abrupt change omonsoons from below to above normal in 1985. The indexes of spring monssons for the coming 2 years and those of seasonal monsoons in the coming 9 seasons may be predicted by using the method of SSA\|MEM. |
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| Keywords: | Qingzang Plateau monsoon climatic oscillation forecast tes |
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