| 混沌动力学模型在火灾损失预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦清华,戴晓江,陈靖.混沌动力学模型在火灾损失预测中的应用[J].甘肃科学学报,2014,26(6):94-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦清华 戴晓江 陈靖 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明,650093 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了验证混沌动力学模型在火灾损失预测中是否具有实用价值,以消防部提供的湖南省1990 2001年的火灾损失统计数据为基础,通过建立混沌动力学模型对2002年的火灾损失数值进行了预测,并将预测结果与实际统计数据进行对比,从而得出混沌动力学模型在火灾预测中具有计算量小、精度较高的优点,可以在实际过程中广泛应用.
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌动力学模型 火灾损失 预测 |
Application of Chaotic Dynamics Model in Fire Loss Prediction |
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| QIN Qing-hua,DAI Xiao-jiang,CHEN Jing.Application of Chaotic Dynamics Model in Fire Loss Prediction[J].Journal of Gansu Sciences,2014,26(6):94-97. |
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| Authors: | QIN Qing-hua DAI Xiao-jiang CHEN Jing |
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| Institution: | (Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China) |
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| Abstract: | It was verified that the chaotic dynamics model had practical applications in the prediction of fire damage. On the basis of the statistics of fire damage from 1990 to 2001 in Hunan province provided by the Fire Department,the chaotic dynamics model was established to forecast the fire damage value in 2002 and the predicted results were compared with actual statistics. The comparison showed that the model had advantages of less calculation and high accuracy,and thus could be widely applied. |
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| Keywords: | Chaotic Dynamics Model Fire Damage Prediction |
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