基于SP调查的农村户用沼气选择行为研究

通过实地调查农户在未来一定假设条件下的沼气选择意向,获取所谓的意向调查数据SP(Stated Preference Survey Data,SP);构建了基于SP数据和效用最大化理论的非集计模型(二元Logit模型),定量分析农村户用沼气选择偏好与农户属性、沼气属性之间的关联特征;利用所建模型对农户选择行为进行预测的准确率为82.78%,农户属性或沼气属性的任何改变都会影响户用沼气的选择结果,但各因素的影响强度与影响方向不尽相同.研究结果为编制区域沼气开发规划提供了参考依据.

Study on Biogas-choosing Behavior of Rural Households Based on SP-survey

The biogas-choosing behaviors of rural households were investigated,and the so-called SP-data obtained. A disaggregate model was constructed based on SP data and the utility maximization theory to quantitatively analyze the relevance between family＇s attribute and its behavior. The predicted accuracy of this model was 82. 78 percent,and the attributes of the family and of biogas would affect the choice, but these factors could be varied in strength and direction. The paper could provide a basis for the regional project of biogas development.