人员应急疏散行动开始前的决策行为

对香港特区三综公屋火灾案例中的人员疏散行为进行了问卷调查·利用自适应性模糊神经网络和BP机制,将采集到的数据样本用于基于模糊推理机的网络训练和校验,建立了人员疏散行动开始前决策行为的预测模型PERM·该模型的预测结果和问卷调查的结果基本吻合·研究表明,火灾状态下,人员应急疏散行动开始前的决策行为与人员火灾经验、人员的初始状态与居住条件等因素有关·香港公屋居住人员在得到火警信息后,约占半数的人将会首先采取进一步确认火灾信息等行动,最终在10～20min以后才开始撤离·四分之一左右的人会做出立刻开始疏散行动的决策·

Personal Decision Behavior Before Emergency Evacuation

Questionnaire investigation was progressed on three fire cases in public domestic building in Hong Kong. Based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system and BP function, data training and checking were progressed to enforce the network learning upon the 150 sets of collected data. As a result, a personal emergency response model on evacuation decision behavior, PERM, was established. The prediction result of PERM and the questionnaire result were almost coincident. It showed that personal decision behavior before emergency evacuation is relevant to what she/he experienced in fire, initial status, residential conditions, etc. For instance, among the residents in public domestic housing in Hong Kong, half would not start evacuation for 10-20 minutes until they confirm the fire alarm/information. Only a quarter of the residents decided to evacuate immediately.