基于EEMD模型的我国跨境并购宏观经济动因分析

以2008~2018我国A股上市公司实施的跨境并购交易为样本，运用EEMD模型从短期和长期两个时间尺度考察了宏观经济环境与跨境并购的关系.结果表明:近些年，我国宏观经济的持续高速发展是引发跨境并购长期波动的主要原因，国内经济政策不确定性上升也会对其产生促进作用;股票市场的短期波动和经济政策调整是驱动跨境并购短期波动的重要因素;无论长、短期，经济预期都对跨境并购波动起反向抑制作用.当国内股票市场指数居于高位、未来经济预期变差或经济政策不确定性上升时，我国企业越有可能进行跨境并购.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Motivations of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions in China Based on EEMD Model

Taking the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) implemented by China’s A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2018 as a sample， the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) model is used to examine the relationship between the macroeconomic environment and cross-border M & As from two time scales: short-term and long-term. The results show that in recent years， the sustained and high-speed development of China’s macro-economy is the main reason for the long-term fluctuations in cross-border M&As， and the rising uncertainty of domestic economic policies will also promote it. Short-term fluctuations in the stock market and economic policy adjustments are important factors driving short-term fluctuations in cross-border M&As. Regardless of the long-term and short-term scales， economic expectations have a negative inhibitory effect on the fluctuation of cross-border M&As. When the domestic stock market index is at a high level and future economic expectations deteriorate or economic policy uncertainty rises， it is more likely for Chinese companies to conduct cross-border M&As.