基于证据推理的项目投资综合评价与决策方法

针对项目投资系统的不确定因素,采用证据推理方法建立一个具有不确定性主客观判断的多属性决策分析模型.结合规则理论,对定性和定量的信息按照综合属性的评价等级变换成统一的形式,采用信任矩阵来表达备选方案的属性评价值,最终采用效用理论计算每个备选方案的效用值,并据此决定各方案的优劣.结合项目投资的实例,说明了证据推理方法在评价决策中的应用及该方法的有效性.

Overall Evaluation and Decision-Making Based on Evidential Reasoning for Investment Projects

In the light of the uncertain factors in the investment decision system, a model for multiple attribute decision analysis(MADA) based on evidential reasoning(ER) is developed to solve the problems with both quantitative and qualitative information in uncertain environment. With the ER, the confidence matrix is used to express the assessed values of attributes, and a rule based on such a technique is developed to transform various types of information according to the grade of the general attribute so that all the attributes can be assessed in a consistent manner. The ranking of scheme is finally generated on the basis of the magnitude of utilities by virtue of utility theory. The investment decision is exemplified to demonstrate that the ER is effective in investment decision system.