石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势分析模型与应用

针对石化装置运行过程中危险瞬息万变的特点,给出了一种将广义集对分析理论与BN集成的石化装置BN拓扑结构节点状态联系度表达形式,提出了石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势计算模型,讨论了石化装置BN拓扑结构节点态势等级,并在同一态势中进行了进一步划分.应用表明:在构建的反应器火灾爆炸BN拓扑结构中,叶节点"反应器火灾爆炸"处于同势,以反应器火灾爆炸事件发生态势为主;同时,得到了其他中间节点状态联系度及其态势等级,且节点联系度中的差异性变化会对其节点态势及其等级产生一定的影响,甚至发生节点态势逆转现象,为分析石化装置BN拓扑结构节点状态及其态势提供了依据.

Node State Trend Analysis Model and Its Application of Petrochemical Device BN Topological Structure

For the changing risk of the petrochemical device， the node state trend expression form of the petrochemical device BN(Bayesian network) topological structure is given based on general set pair analysis(GSPA) theory and BN， the node state trend calculation model of the petrochemical device BN topological structure is proposed， the node state trend grade of the petrochemical device BN topological structure is discussed， and the node state trend grade is divided in the same situation. Application results show that the leaf node “the reaction fire explosion” belongs to the same situation， and the reactor fire explosion event occurrence is major in the BN topological structure of the reactor fire explosion. The intermediate node connection degree and its state trend level are obtained， and the difference change of the connection degree will have some certain impact on the corresponding node situation and the node level， even the situation is reversed， and provides the basis for the node state and its state situation analysis of BN topological structure.