基于IGT对中国环境负荷的动态分析与预测

基于IGT方程及其衍生方程,建立经济增长与环境负荷之间的定量关系,分析在我国发展中存在的问题.利用环境负荷下降率t与g*的相互关系分析经济增长对生态环境的影响,环境负荷以能源消耗量、SO2排放量和COD为分析指标.基于STIRPAT模型预测中国2010～2020年的经济增长与环境负荷的发展状况.根据不同参数分析4种情景方案,推演出预测结果.根据预测结果分析,欲实现中国可持续发展,必须采取有力措施和政策,尤其是调控g和t的合理关系.

IGT-Based Dynamics Analysis/Forecast of Environmental Loadin China

IGT equation and the equations derived from it were applied to establishing the quantitative relationship between economic growth and environmental load so as to solve some existing problems found in China's development. According to the interaction between the environmental load descent rate t and g^*(g^*=g/(1+g) where g is the annually average growth rate of GDP), the effect of economic growth on environmental load, was analyzed taking energy consumption, SO2 emission and chemical oxygen demand (COD) as indices. Based on the STIRPAT model derived from IPAT, the economic development and relevant environmental load in the period 2010~2020 was forecast according to different parameters in four cases. The results revealed that China should formulate appropriate policies and take powerful measures to ensure the sustainable development specifically the regulation for the interaction between g and t.