一种新型偏差分析模型及其应用

为解决基于结构分解技术的投入产出偏差分析模型存在的交互项不一致问题,利用结构分解技术能够有效分析非线性关系的特性,提出交互项完全分解法,构建新型偏差分析模型.基于中国投入产出表1997,1999,2000,2002,2007年度数据,应用所建模型对中国经济增长进行分析,得出了产业结构、最终产品内部结构、最终产品对中国经济三个产业的直接影响效应和交互影响效应,结论符合1997～2007年中国经济状况,对中国经济后续趋势预测及政策制定具有现实意义.

A New Deviation Analysis Model and Its Application

A method of complete decomposition of interactive terms was proposed so as to develop a new deviation analysis model via SDA which is available to analyze the nonlinearity efficiently, thus solving the problem of the inconsistency of interactive terms in the SDA-based input-output deviation analysis model. The new model was applied to the annual input-output data in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2007 to analyze China's economic growth in view of the industrial structure, intrinsic structure of finished products and the direct and interactive effects of finished product on China's primary, secondary and tertiary industries. The conclusion thus drawn is in conformity to the economic situation from 1997 to 2007 in China and of significance to the forecast of China's economic development trend and relative policy making.