小子样条件下双路供弹机动作的可靠性评估方法

针对双路供弹机可靠性评估的难题，提出了用假设检验确定继承因子的Bayes方法，来避免可靠性评估方法中的数据融合问题.分别运用含有继承因子的Bayes方法、MML方法和LM方法对该机构的工作过程进行了可靠性评估和对比，所提方法既用到了各个单位的历史数据，又用到了系统的试验数据，提高了计算的准确性.采用仿真计算的数据，对所提方法进行了验证，验证结果表明，适当减少单元实验数据或增加历史数据组数，可有效降低系统试验成本，提高研发效率.验证方法为可靠性评估的进一步探索提供参考和依据.

Research on Small-Sample Two-Ways Feed Mechanism Motion Reliability Assessment

The reliability assessment of two-ways feeding mechanism is a hard problem, in order to avoid the data fusion problem in reliability evaluation, the Bayes method with inheritance factor which is determined by hypothesis testing was provided. The Bayes with inheritance factor, MML and LM evaluation methods are used to assess the reliability during working process, and the provided method used not only the history data, but also the testing data of system, and the accuracy of calculation improved. Simulation data was used for testing the provided method, the tested results showed that the test data reduces appropriately or the historical data sets increases appropriately, the cost of system testing can reduce effectively, and the efficiency of research improves. Hypothesis testing offers a reference and basis for further reliability evaluation.