中国铝的社会蓄积量及折旧再生指数分析

我国近些年来原铝产量和消费量快速增长,铝土矿资源严重不足,在很大程度上依赖于进口.随着铝社会蓄积量的增大,废铝资源将越来越多,并在铝工业中发挥更大的作用.通过对我国铝的社会蓄积量及其平均年龄、回收率、折旧再生指数等进行分析,得到以下结果:1990年~2010年铝的社会蓄积量从723万t增长到10 355万t;2010年铝制品的平均年龄约为4.3年,折旧再生指数和铝的社会蓄积量回收率分别为0.074 7 t/t和1.17%.基于未来铝消费的3种情景进行了分析,在情景3下:预计我国铝的社会蓄积量在2035年达到最大值6亿t,2055年稳定在5.7亿t;铝制品平均年龄在2040年达到最大值(7.13年),同年折旧再生指数达到最大值(0.79 t/t),铝的社会蓄积量回收率也达到最大值(5.05%).研究结果将为铝工业相关政策的制定提供一定的参考.

Analysis of Al-Contents in Social Stock and the Regeneration Index of Depreciated Aluminum Products in China

Aluminum production and consumption have increased quickly in China in recent years， while bauxite is in severely shortage and has to been imported from overseas. With the increment of aluminum social stock， the old scrap will become larger and play a greater role in aluminum industry. The social stock of aluminum， average age， old scrap recovery rate and regeneration index were analyzed. The results showed that social stock of aluminum in China increased from 7.23 million tons to 103.55 million tons in the period 1990~2010. The average age of aluminum products in social stock was about 4.3 years， and the regeneration index of depreciated aluminum products and recovery rate of aluminum social stock were 0.0747t/t and 1.17 percent， respectively， in 2010. Three scenarios analysis for different aluminum consumption conditions were carried out， and under the third scenario: the amount of aluminum social stock will reach 6 hundred million tons in 2035 and keep constant at 5.7 hundred million tons in 2055. In the year 2040， the average age of aluminum products in social stock will reach its maximum value at 7.13 years， the regeneration index of depreciated aluminum products and recovery rate of aluminum social stock will also get their maximum value in the same year， and the values were 0.79t/t and 5.05%， respectively. The analyzing results will give some references for the policy making of aluminum industry.