预测我国钢铁工业发展趋势的递归模型

本文根据我国钢铁工业生产特点,建立了60多个变量、28个方程的递归模型,描述了钢铁工业生产的结构形式,确定了主要生产环节的生产函数,给出了各种经济变量间的相互关系,预测了我国矿、铁、钢、钢材、产值等28个主要的内生变量的未来值,分析了“七五”、“八五”、“九五”三个五年计划可达指标、发展速度及保证条件。经过1984年的实际检验,证明模型的预测效果良好。

A Recurrence Model Forecasting China's Iron and Steel Production

A recurrence model including 61 parameters and 28 equations to forecast the furture volue of iron and steel is developed, based on an analysis of the recent characteristics of China's iron and steel production. Analyzing the configuration of steel industry and difining the production functions of main links in production process, the model gives out the interactions between different economic variables. 28 potential values of endogenous variables, such as ore,irons, steeles,rolled-steels and output values, can thus be forecasted, and further the reachable criteria of iron and steel productions of China in the furture 7th, 8th and 9th five-year plans are estimated, as well as the possible growth velocities and guarantee conditions as required. As the realities in 1984 justified, the model is proved useful.