具有不确定性需求的供应链牛鞭效应的随机控制

在供应链的多层动态库存模型基础上 ,研究了顾客端不确定性需求是白噪声 ,以及其更复杂情况有色噪声条件下的供应链模型·并针对在不同的顾客不确定需求环境 ,采用随机控制理论对供应链中牛鞭效应进行了抑制控制的研究·同时以一个石油分销系统为对象进行了供应链牛鞭效应的随机控制仿真实验 ,实验表明牛鞭效应受到了抑制

Stochastic Control of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain with Uncertain Demand

Bullwhip effects in supply chain often happen when supply chain includes multi-stage,e.g. supplier, manufacturer, distributor, and when the demand of customers is uncertainly. The bullwhip effects will increase total inventory and cost of supply chain. For reducing the influence of bullwhip effects, based on a multi-stage model of supply chain which includes three layers: one supplier layer, one integrated layer and one customer layer, the bullwhip effect models are investigated while the customer's uncertain demand is white noise or color noise. Applying stochastic control principle, a research about restraining the bullwhip effect under different uncertain command is done. A simulation of petroleum distribute system is done, and the result shows that the bullwhip effect is reduced.