关于我国外汇储备规模的实证分析

传统的外汇储备规模理论主要有3个的缺陷：一是对外汇储备功能的认识还停留在表面层次上；二是静止地看待国际储备的规模问题；三是忽略了大多数发展中国家的具体国情。关于我国外汇储备的规模，难以根据某种模式给出一个精确的定量结论，这不仅是因为我国有特殊的国情，更在于未来的5－10年内我国的经济发展发展充满着变数。采用实证分析的方法，从我国外汇储备中自有储备的比重、进口刚性、面临入世环境等方面，论证了根据具体国情我国应继续坚持扩大外汇储备政策的客观必然性。

Investigation on the Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

There are three main defects in traditional theories of foreign exchange reserve scale, i.e. functions of foreign exchange reserve are not recognized clearly, scale of foreign exchange reserve is considered in static way, and situation of most developing countries is not considered. As for the foreign exchange reserve scale in China, it is difficult to make an accurate conclusion in quality based on a given mode. The reason is that not only China has special national condition, but also the economy development will be full with dramatic change within five to ten years. In this paper, using the method of analyzing facts, the rate of foreign exchange reserve, the import inflexibility, the environment of WTO entrance and etc. in China have been discussed. Finally, the results show that it is necessary for china to resist on policy of enlarging foreign exchange reserve.