前景理论视角下PPP项目共享风险管理演化及仿真分析

PPP项目往往特许期较长,复杂和不确定因素较多,利益主体目标不同,能够明确分配的风险因素往往不会产生较大的争议,需要双方共享的风险便成为PPP管理成败的关键。本文将前景理论引入PPP共享风险管理的过程中,分析了公私双方均选择积极管理策略的均衡在实际中难以达成的原因,得出了影响演化稳定策略的因素有:公私方积极管理的额外感知成本,对风险发生概率的正确判断,损失分担系数和奖惩力度。为加强PPP项目共享风险的有效管理,本文提出了加强公私双方风险识别和评估能力和风险概率判断的准确性,落实责任分担机制,加强奖惩力度等措施。

Behavior Evolution and Simulation Analysis of Shared- Risk Management for PPP Projects Based on Prospect Theory

PPP projects tend to have a long concession period, more complex and uncertain factors and different objectives of the stakeholders. The risk factors that can be clearly assigned are often not controversial. The risk that needs to be shared by both sides is the key to the success of PPP management. This paper introduces the prospect theory into the process of PPP shared risk management, and analyzes the reasons why the equilibrium between public and private choice of active management strategies is difficult to achieve in practice. It is concluded that the influence factors affecting the evolutionary stability strategy are the additional perceived cost of the active management of the public and the public and the private party, the correct judgment of the probability of risk occurrence, the loss sharing coefficient and the rewards and punishments. And put forward the measures to strengthen the ability of public and private risk identification and assessment, the accuracy of risk probability judgment, the implementation of the responsibility sharing mechanism, and the strengthening of rewards and punishments. Through the above measures, the sharing risk of PPP projects can be managed effectively.