城镇企业职工基本养老金调整方案测算研究

我国尚未针对城镇企业职工基本养老金的调整比例出台公式化的操作规则，给养老金调整政策的出台带来了压力。为此，本研究依据养老金调整目标和人口老龄化形势，设定养老金调整参数；借鉴国际经验，基于2005~2021年全国数据设计并测算3种基本养老金调整方案，从人口结构与经济发展角度衡量各方案；进而基于最优方案对我国2022~2050年间的养老金调整比例和养老金负担水平进行测算，根据测算结果，提出探索建立科学、合理的基本养老金调整机制的政策建议。

Research on the Measurement of Basic Pension Adjustment Schemes for Urban Enterprise Employees

China has not yet issued formulaic operating rules for the adjustment ratio of basic pensions of urban enterprise employees, which has put pressure on the introduction of pension adjustment policies. To this end, the paper sets pension adjustment parameters based on pension adjustment targets and population aging situation; draws on international experience, designs and measures three basic pension adjustment schemes based on national data from 2005~2021, and measures each scheme from the perspective of demographic structure and economic development; then, based on the optimal scheme, the pension adjustment ratio and pension burden level in China during 2022~2050 are calculated. Based on the results, the paper proposes policy recommendations to explore the establishment of a scientific and reasonable adjustment mechanism for basic pension benefits.