西藏城镇化过程中的“人口-社会-经济”耦合评估研究[1]

西藏地处我国西部边境,是我国重要生态安全屏障,同时也是欠发达地区。西藏的发展关系到国家民生和谐、社会稳定、主权完整。城镇化作为协调区域发展的助推器,在西藏的发展中发挥重要作用。在城镇化过程中,西藏的人口、社会、经济方面均有不同幅度的提升,全面完整地评估西藏自治区城镇化过程中人口、社会、经济之间的关系以及城镇化质量对于制定西藏接下来发展战略至关重要。文章采用耦合模型分析了2011-2020年西藏城镇化中“人口-社会-经济”三系统的耦合协调关系。研究发现：虽然在样本期内,“人口-社会-经济”耦合度始终处于高水平耦合阶段。但从耦合协调度来看,西藏 “人口-社会-经济”耦合协调度在最高的年份也仅为勉强协调,尚有较大提升空间。进一步研究发现西藏城镇化过程中“人口-社会-经济”高耦合度是由于三个系统发展水平过低导致,西藏城镇化水质量较低,尤其是经济发展水平的落后已经开始限制人口和社会的发展水平。本文研究结论有助于深化对西藏人口、社会、经济关系的理解,为进一步推动西藏高质量城镇化发展提供了参考依据。

Evaluation of population socio-economic coupling in the process of urbanization in Tibet

Tibet is located in the western border of China. It is not only an important ecological security barrier in China, but also an underdeveloped area. The development of Tibet is related to the harmony of the people''s livelihood, social stability and sovereignty integrity of the country. As a booster for coordinating regional development, urbanization plays an important role in the development of Tibet. In the process of urbanization, Tibet''s population, society and economy have improved by varying degrees. A comprehensive and complete assessment of the relationship between population, society and economy and the quality of urbanization in the process of urbanization in the Tibet Autonomous Region is very important for formulating Tibet''s next development strategy. This paper uses the coupling model to analyze the coupling and coordination relationship of "population society economy" in the urbanization of Tibet from 2011 to 2020. It is found that although the coupling degree of "population society economy" is always in a high-level coupling stage in the sample period. However, from the perspective of coupling coordination degree, the coupling coordination degree of "population society economy" in Tibet is only barely coordinated in the highest year, and there is still much room for improvement. Further research found that the high coupling degree of "population society economy" in the process of urbanization in Tibet is due to the low development level of the three systems. The low water quality of urbanization in Tibet, especially the backward level of economic development, has begun to limit the development level of population and society. The conclusions of this paper help to deepen the understanding of the population, social and economic relations in Tibet, and provide a reference basis for further promoting the development of high-quality urbanization in Tibet.