| 吐鲁番生态足迹动态分析及驱动模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 加帕尔·热西提,孙晓蕾,任庆娟.吐鲁番生态足迹动态分析及驱动模型研究[J].科技促进发展,2018,14(1):59-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 加帕尔·热西提 孙晓蕾 任庆娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大学 北京 100190,1.中国科学院大学 北京 100190;2.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190,中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 北京 100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划专题（编号：2016YFC0501905-05）：特色生态旅游产品开发及示范，负责人：孙晓蕾。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以经典生态足迹模型为基础，对吐鲁番地区2007—2015年的生态足迹情况进行动态测算，并利用主成分分析和多元线性回归方法，建立了人均生态足迹驱动模型。结果表明，吐鲁番生态足迹出现拐点，由2007年的3.53hm2/cap上升到2013年的7.0hm2/cap后又降到2015年的6.16hm2/cap；吐鲁番人均生态足迹动态变化是人口、经济、技术等多方面因素共同作用的结果，经济发展引起的消费水平提升是人均生态足迹动态变化的主要驱动力。
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| 关 键 词： | 吐鲁番 生态足迹 动态分析 驱动力 |
Analysis of Sustainable Development of Turpan Based on Ecological Footprint Model |
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| Jiapaer Rexiti,SUN Xiaolei and REN Qingjuan.Analysis of Sustainable Development of Turpan Based on Ecological Footprint Model[J].Science & Technology for Development,2018,14(1):59-64. |
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| Authors: | Jiapaer Rexiti SUN Xiaolei and REN Qingjuan |
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| Institution: | University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190,1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190; 2. Insititute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 and Chinese Society of Optimization, Overall Planning and Economic Mathematics, Beijing 100190 |
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| Abstract: | Based on classic Ecological Footprint Model, the ecological footprint in Tupan was calculated according to its 2007- 2015 statistics, and a Driving factors of per capita ecological footprint was analyzed by using the principal component analysis, and driving model was constructed by using the multivariate linear model. The results showed that: (1) Ecological footprint turned a corner, per capital ecological footprint in Turpan from 3.53 hm2/cap in 2007 increased to 7.0 hm2/cap in 2007, then dropped to 6.16 hm2/cap in 2015; (2) The dynamic change of per capita ecological footprint in Turpan is the result of many factors such as population, economy, technology and so on. The promotion of consumption level caused by economic development is the main driving force. |
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| Keywords: | Turpan ecological footprint dynamic analysis driving force |
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