基于风险可接受性的输油管道环境损失风险管理研究

针对油品管输时,由于管道失效泄漏造成环境污染这一潜在环境损失风险,需要基于风险可接受性理论进行风险决策,实现该类风险管控资源的合理分配。首先,采用失效概率—内梅罗污染指数曲线结合ALALRP原则,确定了输油管道路由环境中5种环境介质损失风险的可接受标准;然后提出了基于风险可接受性的输油管道环境损失风险缓解决策流程,并利用成本效益分析,推导了风险决策的数学模型,最终形成一整套风险管理模型。案例分析表明：所形成的风险可接受标准能更精准管控资源,对有效提高我国输油管道环境损失风险管理水平有一定意义。

Study on Risk Management of Environmental Loss in Oil PipelineBased on Risk Acceptability

In view of the potential environmental loss risk caused by pipeline failure leakage, it is necessary to make risk decision based on the theory of risk acceptability, and realize the reasonable allocation of such risk control resources. Firstly, the acceptable criteria of the risk of loss of five environmental media in the pipeline routing environment are determined by combining the failure probability-Nemero pollution index curve combined with AlALRP principle, and then the decision-making process for the mitigation of the risk of oil pipeline environmental loss based on risk acceptability is proposed, and the cost-benefit analysis is used. The mathematical model of risk decision-making is deduced, and a set of risk management model is formed. The case analysis shows that the resulting risk acceptable standard can control resources more precisely, which is of great significance to effectively improve the level of environmental loss risk management in China"s pipeline.