考虑供应商风险偏好的物流服务供应链系统动力学仿真分析

为解决物流服务供应链(Logistics Service Supply Chain,LSSC)成员企业决策难的问题,本研究以分析LSSC的影响因素为基础,借助系统动力学方法构建了考虑供应商风险偏好的LSSC系统动力学模型,并对其主要环节变量中的物流服务能力持有量、供应商服务积压订单量进行了仿真模拟.结果表明:LSSC各成员的物流服务能力持有量、供应商服务积压订单量均会受供应商风险偏好的影响;结合风险感知来源分析发现,调整风险感知来源参数可优化供应商服务订单积压问题,能在一定程度上解决LSSC上存在的信息不对称、牛鞭效应等问题.

Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Logistics Service Supply Chain Systems Considering Suppliers'Risk Preference

To solve the difficult decision-making problem of Logistics service supply chain (LSSC) member enterprises, this study analyzed LSSC''s influencing factors, and on the basis of this, constructed a LSSC system''s dynamics model considering suppliers'' risk preference by using the system dynamics method, and simulated the logistics service capacity holding and supplier service backlog order quantity in its main link variables. The results show that: each LSSC member''s logistics service ability holding quantity, supplier service backlog order quantity will be affected by suppliers'' risk preference, combined with risk perception source analysis, it is found that adjusting risk perception source parameters can optimize supplier service order backlog problem. To some extent, the information asymmetry and bullwhip effect in LSSC can be solved.