| 我国碳排放交易试点政策对试点省市减排效果及影响路径分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵新泽,刘昌新,王建良,郭剑锋,张雪美.我国碳排放交易试点政策对试点省市减排效果及影响路径分析[J].科技促进发展,2023,19(12):744-753. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵新泽 刘昌新 王建良 郭剑锋 张雪美 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190,中国石油大学（北京）经济管理学院 北京 102249,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 年北京工商大学一般项目（KYPT202305）：企业数字化与绿色发展研究,负责人：刘昌新。 |
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| 摘 要： | 碳排放交易作为促减排的成熟手段之一,量化其对城市生产中碳排放及影响路径对我国未来促发展保生态有重要意义。本研究旨在从碳排放和碳排放强度两个角度,采用双重差分模型探究碳排放交易试点政策对减排效果的影响并利用中介效应方法厘清其中间机制。结果表明试点政策显著降低碳排放量以及碳排放强度,并且碳排放交易试点政策可通过提高试点城市的技术创新能力,调整能源结构和产业结构,降低碳排放量和降低碳排放强度以提高减排效率。本研究认为未来可以通过根据不同城市的发展情况鼓励建设高新技术产业和引进和国外先进的“绿色”生产链以及根据其发展需求不同调整第二产业占比以降低碳排放量和降低碳排放强度。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放交易 双重差分方法 倾向性得分匹配 中介效应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/10/31 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/12/15 0:00:00 |
Analysis of the Emission Reduction Effect and Impact Path of China"s Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy on Pilot Provinces and Cities |
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| ZHAO Xinze,LIU Changxin,WANG Jianliang,GUO Jianfeng and ZHANG Xuemei.Analysis of the Emission Reduction Effect and Impact Path of China"s Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy on Pilot Provinces and Cities[J].Science & Technology for Development,2023,19(12):744-753. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xinze LIU Changxin WANG Jianliang GUO Jianfeng and ZHANG Xuemei |
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| Institution: | Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190,School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum Beijing, 102249,Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190,Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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| Abstract: | The official opening of China"s carbon emissions trading market in 2021 marks that carbon emissions trading has gradually become one of the mature means to promote emission reduction. Therefore, quantifying its impact on carbon emissions and its impact path is of great significance for China"s future development and ecological protection. This study aims to explore the impact of carbon emission trading pilot policies on emission reduction effects from the perspectives of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity, using Difference in Difference model in causal inference methods, and to clarify the intermediate mechanism from carbon emission trading policies to carbon emission changes using the Mediation Effect method. The results indicate that the pilot policy significantly reduces carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity, and the carbon emission trading pilot policy can improve emission reduction efficiency by improving the technological innovation ability of the pilot cities, reducing the proportion of coal and secondary industry, thereby reducing carbon emissions and reducing carbon emission intensity. Therefore, this study believes that the national carbon emission trading pilot policy is effective for reducing emissions in provinces and cities, and can reduce carbon emissions and intensity by encouraging the construction of high-tech industries and introducing advanced "green" production chains from abroad based on the development situation of different cities, as well as adjusting the proportion of the secondary industry according to their development needs. |
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| Keywords: | carbon emissions trading difference in difference propensity score model and difference in difference mediation effect |
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