基于危害积温的重庆市三峡库区柑橘产量预报方法研究

以重庆市三峡库区柑橘典型种植区域——开县为例,利用开县1991—2010年的柑橘生长发育期观测资料、气象资料和产量资料,分析了低温、高温对柑橘生长发育的影响,确定了影响柑橘生产的主要生长发育期的危害温度指标,并对柑橘一个生长周期内的累积危害积温与气象生理产量进行相关分析,结果表明:二者为显著负相关关系,相关系数为-0.660.在此基础上,以累积危害积温和上一年气象生理产量为影响因子,建立开县柑橘的气象生理产量预报模型.利用同样的方法,建立库区其余地区柑橘的产量预报模型.利用模型计算的结果,对库区各主产区的柑橘产量进行模拟和预报,平均准确率超过92%.

On Yield Prediction of Citrus in the Three-Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Harmful Cumulative Temperatures

An analysis has been made of the effect of high and low temperature on growth of citrus,and indexes of harmful temperature on main citrus phenophases are determined,by means of data of phenophases,yield and meteorological data-take Kaixian for example.The correlation analysis of harmful cumulative temperature accumulation and meteorology-physiology yield shows that the former is negatively correlated with the latter and the correlation coefficient is-0.660.On this basis,the meteorology-physiology yield prediction in citrus groves in Kaixian has been established by means of the key factors of the harmful cumulative temperature accumulation and the meteorology-physiology yield in last year.Based on the same method,models of the others in Chongqing Three-Gorges Reservoir Area have been established.Simulation and prediction have been made by the calculation results of all the models,and the average accuracy is more than 92%,which could meet the requirement of business service.