基于GRD的农村劳动力转移的长期预测分析——以重庆市为例

根据演化博弈理论建立了重庆市农村劳动力转移的一般化模仿者动态模型(GRD),对重庆市农村劳动力转移最终稳定状态和长期趋势进行了预测分析.研究表明:基期数据中重庆市城乡收入差距越大,最终稳定状态下城镇部门就业比例越大,农村部门就业比例越小;农村劳动力转移的动态过程渐进稳定收敛到均衡点;转移过程的长期趋势与学习障碍无关.

The Long-run Forcasting Analysis for Rural Labor Transfer in Chongqing by GRD Model

This paper uses the evolutionary game theory to build the generalized replicator dynamic forecasting model, that includes three departments. It forecasts the finally stable state and long-run tendency of Chongqing rural labor transfer. It draws conclusions that the more urban-rural income disparity in basal period statistical data, the less urban department employing proportion and the more rural department employing proportion in the finally stable state. The dynamic function asymptotic stable converges to the Nash equilibrium. The long-run trend for rural labor transfer is independent of learning barriers.