基于CGE模型的城镇化对农村经济增长的影响分析

城镇化的快速发展导致大量农村劳动力转移到城市,这种转移对于农村经济增长究竟表现出何种影响是一个重要的课题.该文将CGE(可计算一般均衡)理论引入到这一问题的研究中,综合劳动力数量、农户消费、农户收入、农业GDP等多种要素构建了CGE模型.针对东、中、西3大地区的实际情况设定实证研究假设条件,实证研究结果显示:城镇化所带来的农村劳动力转移,推动了农村经济发展,带动了农业GDP增加,抑制了通货膨胀.农村劳动力的转移,对农村地区的制造业、建筑业、交通业、旅游业及其他产业都有促进作用,并且中西部地区的促进作用更加明显.

Analysis on Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Economic Growth Based on CGE Model

The rapid development of urbanization has led to the transfer of a large number of rural labor to cities, which is an important issue for the impact of the transfer on agricultural economic growth. In this paper, CGE Computable Equilibrium theory is introduced into the study of this problem, and the CGE model is constructed by integrating many factors, such as the number of labor force, household consumption, household income, agricultural GDP and so on. According to the actual situation of the three regions, the hypothesis of empirical research is set. The results of empirical research show that the transfer of rural labor force brought by urbanization promotes the development of agricultural economy, promotes the increase of agricultural GDP and restrains inflation. Further research results also show that the transfer of rural labor force can promote the manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and other industries in rural areas, and the promotion of the central and western regions is more obvious.