城市住房价格动力

主要目的是在同一计量经济环境中,综合考虑长期借贷利率、外来投资规模,是否是推动城市住房价格的动力或决定因素.同时考虑了通货膨胀因素对房价的可能影响.由于特大型中心城市住房市场对中西部市场具有传导作用,故以北京、上海、广州和深圳四个主要城市住房市场为分析案例.采用2005—2010年月度时间序列数据,考虑结构突变和小样误差,进行了约束协整和弱外生检验.所有外来投资变量是平稳序列,不可能与住房价格形成长期均衡关系.长期利率和通货膨胀是北京、上海房价变化的长期动力.因此提高长期借贷利率、控制通货膨胀,有助抑制房价上涨.

Dynamics of Housing Prices in Metropolises

This paper mainly aims to analyse the dynamics of housing prices in metropolises of China.Under the same econometric roof,it investigates whether or not actual long-term loan interest rates and foreign investment scale are the motive forces of housing price or decisive factors for its fluctuation,and examines the possible effects of inflation on housing prices.Four metropolises,i.e.,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen,are taken as the cases of study,since previous empirical evidence indicates the mechanism that the information may be transmitted in the direction from urban housing markets in East-China cities to Middle-and West-China zones.Using monthly time series covering the period 2005-2010,and considering possible structural breaks and finite-sample biases,the authors conduct restricted cointegration and weak exogeneity tests.All foreign investment series are stationary and unlikely to move together with housing prices over time and,hence,are removed from the cointegration tests.The results suggest that long-term loan interest rates and inflation are the dynamics of housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai markets.Hence,it is concluded that an increase in the long-term loan interest rates and measures of inflation control would help to restrain house prices.