均匀腐蚀下管道可靠度及参数敏感度研究

分别采用一次二阶矩法和Monte-Carlo法对某存在均匀腐蚀的管道进行了可靠性分析,结果发现Monte-Carlo方法分析结果可靠度数值略低于一次二阶矩法;可靠性分析发现,虽然管道的平均应力始终小于屈服应力,但管道可靠度随着均匀腐蚀的发生呈现加速下降趋势,至运行20年可靠度仅为0.58,已经无法安全使用;管道可靠性参数分析发现,对管道可靠度影响最大的为壁厚,其次为材料强度性能,然后为材料的载荷状况,材料载荷对可靠度的影响程度取决于这种载荷对管道总体应力的贡献程度。

Reliability of pipeline under uniform corrosion conditions and the sensitivity of the influence factors

In this article First Order Second Moment method and Monte-Carlo methods are used to calculate the reliability of the pipelines under uniform corrosion conditions.The results show that the data obtained by Monte-Carlo is a little lower than that by First Order Second Moment.Reliability assessment also shows that the reliability is continuously decreasing while the stress of the pipeline is still lower than yield limit of the material.At the 20th year of the pipeline’s use,the reliability is only 0.58,and the pipeline is not safe anymore.The parameters analysis of influence factors show that the thickness is the most important factor that influence the reliability,while yield limit is the second and load is the third.The influence of different loads to the reliability is decided by their awards to the total stress of the pipeline.