| 需求驱动的商品房价上涨实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈科,郑小平.需求驱动的商品房价上涨实证分析[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2011,27(1):53-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈科 郑小平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆交通大学财经学院,重庆,400074
2. 日本立命馆大学经济学部,日本草津,525-8577 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章从"需求大于供给"的经验判断出发,借鉴国外经验,分析了中国商品房需求形成及其影响因素,并导出需求驱动的房价方程。依据2001—2007年的季度数据,运用误差修正模型分析需求驱动的房价上涨实质后发现:家庭可支配收入提高和商品房需求量增加是房价持续上涨的主要动力,购房贷款利率对房价的长短期波动都较弱;而扩大购房消费贷款规模抑制房价上涨的长期效应要小于短期的,可配合结构性供给增加,实施选择性信贷政策。
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| 关 键 词： | 需求驱动 房价上涨 购房贷款利率 购房消费贷款 误差修正模型 |
Empirical Analysis on the Increase of the Commercial Housing Price Driven by Demand |
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| CHEN Ke,ZHENG Xiao-Ping.Empirical Analysis on the Increase of the Commercial Housing Price Driven by Demand[J].JOurnal of Chongqing Three Gorges University,2011,27(1):53-58. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Ke ZHENG Xiao-Ping |
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| Institution: | CHEN Ke1 ZHENG Xiao-Ping2(1.School of Finance and Economics,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing,400074,China)(2.Department of Economics,Ritsumeican University,Kusatsu,525-8577,Japan) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the empirical judging of demand is greater than supply and the previous studies oversea,this paper analyzes the demand formation of commercial housing and its impact factors in China,and derives the inverted demand function of housing prices.Furthermore,the Error Correction Model is used to study the increase of demand-driven prices by the quarterly data in 2001-2007.The results show that the increases in household disposable incomes and demand for the commercial housing are the major driving force... |
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| Keywords: | demand driving increase of housing price mortgage rates mortgage size error correction model |
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