| 济南城市发展预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘匡,徐跃通,常鲁群.济南城市发展预测研究[J].山东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012(3):54-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘匡 徐跃通 常鲁群 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,济南250014 [2]济南市勘察测绘研究院,济南250013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（40471049）. |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者通过对济南城市发展历史的研究，剖析城市发展的影响因素，如地形、交通等．选择SLEUTH模型，借助GIS、RS技术，对未来济南城市增长进行模拟，得到了济南未来2015年、2020年、2030年的城市中长期发展预测图，并通过与现实数据的比较验证了SLEUTH模型预测的精度．最后，针对济南未来发展存在的问题提出了浅见．
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| 关 键 词： | 济南 城市发展 SLEUTH模型 GIS＼RS 预测 |
PREDICTION OF JINAN ON THE CITY DEVELOPMENT |
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| Liu Kuang,Xu Yuetong,Chang Luqun.PREDICTION OF JINAN ON THE CITY DEVELOPMENT[J].Journal of Shandong Normal University(Natural Science),2012(3):54-57. |
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| Authors: | Liu Kuang Xu Yuetong Chang Luqun |
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| Institution: | 1 ) School of Population Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University,250014, Jinan 2) Jinan Surveying and Mapping Institute, 250013, Jinan, China ) |
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| Abstract: | We analyze influence factors in the city development, such as topography, traffic etc, relying on the research of the city development history about Jinan , chooses the SLEUTH model and uses RS＆GIS to simulate the future of Jinan city growth, and gets the city development forecast map in 2015,2020,2030. The accuracy of prediction of the SLEUTH model is verified with the comparison between the prediction and the reality. Finally some recommendations on the problems about the future development of Jinan are out forward. |
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| Keywords: | Jinan city development SLEUTH model GIS＆RS prediction |
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