在役桥梁承载力模糊可靠性的马尔科夫预测

基于模糊评价和马尔科夫过程，研究了在役桥梁承载力可靠度的时变规律。根据模糊评价理论，确定桥梁承载力状况分布向量，引入马尔科夫过程方法，构造结构状态转移概率矩阵。借鉴时间-空间转换思想，提出一种基于逆阵的改进方法用于计算转移概率矩阵，并给出利用桥梁当前承载力状况分布向量修正转移概率矩阵的方法。针对新建桥梁、在役桥梁以及考虑加固的桥梁分别给出其承载力可靠度分布向量预测公式，并提出承载力预测指标。算例表明，该方法可实现桥梁承载力的可靠度预测。

Prediction of Markov fuzzy reliability for existing bridge

The time-varying reliability of existing bridge on bearing capacity was discussed based on fuzzy evaluation and Markov process. According to fuzzy evaluation theory, the distributing vector of bridge condition on bearing capacity was determined. And with the idea of time-space transition, the transition probability matrix of bridge condition was calculated by an improved inversion method. The transition probability matrix was amended according to the initial and current distributing vectors of bridge condition. The distributing vector of bridge condition on bearing capacity was predicted for new bridge, existing bridge and the bridge undergoing reinforcement. A new prediction index was put forward. The method was applied successfully in practical examination. 1 tab, 2 figs, 8 refs.