| 灰色马尔可夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 吕品,周心权.灰色马尔可夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中应用[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,26(1):10-13. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 吕品 周心权 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学资源与安全工程学院,北京,100083;安徽理工大学资源开发与管理工程系,安徽,淮南,232001
2. 中国矿业大学资源与安全工程学院,北京,100083 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 灰色马尔可夫模型是将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论相结合建立的预测模型,它不仅充分发挥了灰色预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型的优点,而且,因为马尔可夫链理论的引入,有效地解决了灰色预测模型对于随机波动性较大的数列预测精度低的问题.并且,通过对煤矿千人负伤率预测的实际应用表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型完全能满足预测精度的要求.
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 马尔可夫链 事故预测 转移概率 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-1098(2006)01-0010-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年10月17 |
Application of Gray Markov Model in the Coal Mine Safety Faulty Forecast |
| |
| LU Pin,ZHOU Xin-quan.Application of Gray Markov Model in the Coal Mine Safety Faulty Forecast[J].Journal of Anhui University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2006,26(1):10-13. |
| |
| Authors: | LU Pin ZHOU Xin-quan |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Beijing Campus, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Dept. of Resources Exploration and Management Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan Anhui 232001 ,China |
| |
| Abstract: | The gray Markov model is a forecast model based on the gray system theory and Markov chain theory.It not only makes good use of the advantages of gray forecast model and Markov mode,but also solves efficiently the problem of low precision of number list forecast.What's more,according to the forecast about the rate of thousands wounded people,the gray Markov forecast model can satisfy the desire in forecast precision. |
| |
| Keywords: | gray system Markov chain accident forecast transfer probability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
