| 基于灰色系统理论的中国就业结构预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王庆丰.基于灰色系统理论的中国就业结构预测分析[J].河南科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,32(2):93-96,113. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王庆丰 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016;中原工学院经济管理学院,河南郑州450007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71071077); 河南省政府决策研究招标课题(B787) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于就业结构存在定和为1的限制,采用非映射变换方法首先进行降维处理,在此基础上结合灰色GM(1,1)模型对中国就业结构"十二五"期间发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:采用该方法研究中国就业结构预测问题,预测精度较高,且克服了采用传统预测方法进行建模得到的预测结果数据总和通常不为1的缺点;"十二五"期间中国就业结构调整将实现突破,由目前第一产业居主导地位的"一、三、二"格局转变为"三、一、二"格局,第三产业成为未来吸纳就业人员最多的产业。
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| 关 键 词： | 就业结构 灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
Prediction of Chinese Employment Structure Based on Grey System Theory |
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| WANG Qing-Feng.Prediction of Chinese Employment Structure Based on Grey System Theory[J].Journal of Henan University of Science & Technology:Natural Science,2011,32(2):93-96,113. |
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| Authors: | WANG Qing-Feng |
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| Institution: | WANG Qing-Feng1,2 (1.College of Economics & Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China,2.College of Economics & Management,Zhongyuan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450007,China) |
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| Abstract: | For employment structure which sum equaled to 1,this paper used non mapping transformation to reduce the dimension firstly,then on this basis GM(1.1)model was adopted to predict Chinese employment structure development tendency during the '12th Five-Year Plan'.The result indicates that this prediction method has higher accuracy and the sum of prediction data equals to 1.The breakthrough of Chinese employment structure adjustment will be realized in the future.The present employment pattern of 'primary,terti... |
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| Keywords: | Employment structure Grey system theory GM(1 1) model Prediction |
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