基于CA-Markov模型的流溪河流域景观格局分析及动态预测

以广州市重要的水源地流溪河流域为研究对象,在Arc GIS和IDRISI平台的支持下,对流溪河流域2000—2010年景观格局进行分析,运用CA-Markov模型对流域景观格局进行了预测.结果表明:(1)在2000—2010年间流溪河流域景观格局随时间变化明显.具体表现在耕地景观类型面积不断减小,建筑用地景观类型面积不断增大;流域中下游地区景观格局变化剧烈,上游地区景观格局变化趋于稳定;(2)通过CA-Markov模型对2020年景观格局进行预测,发现其未来将继续向人为驱动方向发展,人类活动将对该地区景观格局变化产生更为深远的影响.总的来看,流溪河流域景观格局的变化主要表现为耕地、林草地面积的减少,园地以及建筑用地面积的增加.

Landscape Pattern Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Liuxi Basin in South China Based on CA-Markov Model

Based on ArcGIS and IDRISI platform, Landscape ecology principles and landscape index are introduced to analyze the landscape pattern of the Liuxi basin, which is the most important water sources of Guangzhou, from 2000 to 2010 and its dynamic degree and the dynamic trend of the landscape pattern of Liuxi basin are predicted with CA-Markov model．The results show that:1) The changes of Liuxi basin landscape pattern from 2000 to 2010 are obvious; the cropland and forestland decreased while the others presented an increasing trend from 2000 to 2010. River watershed landscape pattern changes dramatically in the region, and landscape pattern changes to stabilize in the upstream region. 2) The prediction results of CA-Markov model show that the dominance degree and fragmentation degree of all landscape types would be declined from 2010 to 2020, and the changes of landscape pattern in the Liuxi basin is mainly driven by human activities, and the far-reaching impact on the landscape pattern will continue. Overall, the landscape pattern change in the basin is mainly manifested as follows: the cropland and forestland are decreased while the garden plot and construction land are increased. The ecological environment is becoming more fragile．