气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流变化的贡献

基于汀江流域控制站溪口站19652012年日均径流量实测数据及长汀、上杭、永定气象站逐日降水、逐日气温资料，采用年段均值比较、5a滑动、趋势线分析和累积距平等方法，对流域近50年来的径流量序列进行分析，揭示径流量变化的趋势，判别径流量变化存在的2个突变年份，划分径流量变化的3个阶段. 应用改进后累积量斜率变化率比较法（SCRCQ）定量估算了近50年来气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献率. 结果表明:（1）径流量总体呈现下降上升下降的波动，判别突变年份为1972、2001年，划分径流变化3个阶段为19651972年(A阶段)、19732001年(B阶段)、20022012年（C阶段）；（2）与A阶段相比，B、C阶段气候变化对径流量变化的贡献率分别为65.1%、50.5%，而人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率为34.9%、49.5%，可见人类活动对径流量变化贡献日趋突出.

The contributions of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the Tingjiang River

Based on 1965-2012 average daily runoff measured data of control hydrometric station (Xi Kou) in the Tingjiang Basin，and daily precipitation and daily temperature of three meteorological stations in the Tingjiang Basin (Chang Ting, Shang Hang, Yong Ding). Paragraph mean comparison, 5a sliding trend line analysis and cumulative anomaly methods are used to analyze runoff series in recent 50 years. The trend of runoff variation is revealed. The mutation years of runoff variation are identified. The stages of runoff variation are divided. The improved cumulative slope rate comparison method is used to quantitative analysis the contribution rate of the climate change and human activities to runoff variation of Tingjiang in nearly 50 years. The results show that:（1）The runoff shows a down-up- down fluctuation in general, and the mutation year is 1972 and 2001, divided into three stages: the runoff change from 1965 to 1972 (stage A), from 1973 to 2001 (stage B), from 2002 to 2012 (stage C).（2）Comparing with A phase, the contribution rates of climate change to runoff variation in B and C phases are 65.1% and 50.5%, respectively, while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff variation is 34.9% and 49.5%, respectively, visible human activities on the change of runoff with increasingprominent.