广州市气温的度边际用电效应研究

根据2000-2005年广州、香港与澳门的月用电量数据及气温数据，以线性回归方式分离了三地的月均气象用电量，建立了气温-月均气象用电量关系模型.结果显示，三地的月均气象用电量平均比例分别为12.9%，17.1%和18.5％；三地月均温分别超过24.43、24.80和24.52℃时，气象用电量对月均温的变化比较敏感，两者的关系也较密切.三地的热季、过渡季与冷季月均温的1℃效应值与相关系数呈依次降低的趋势.

STUDY ON THE MARGINAL ELECTRIC EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE IN GUANGZHOU

Based on the monthly mean temperature data and electric power consumptions in Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Macao from 2000 to 2005, the monthly mean weather components of 3 cities are divided by linear regression method and a model between temperature and weather components is build up. It shows that the percentages of the monthly mean weather components of the cities are 12.9%,17.1% and 18.5%, respectively.When the monthly mean temperature is up to 24.43,24.80 and 24.52℃, the weather components is more sensitive to the change of mean monthly temperature. The 1℃ effect and correlation coefficients successively decease in hot, transitional and cold seasons in the cities.