粤东地区人口老龄化空间格局演变

以粤东地区19个区县为研究对象，选取粤东地区1990、2000、2010年的人口普查数据，分别计算各区县的老年人口系数、老年负担系数和老年人口密度；运用空间自相关分析法和人口重心模型，对粤东地区人口老龄化的空间分布格局的演变进行了初步的探索；试图从空间视角丰富对人口老龄化区域特征和差异的认识，并为人口优化措施提供参考性的依据. 研究结果表明:粤东地区已进入老年型社会初期；粤东地区老年人口分布不均，各区县差异显著；老年人口分布重心呈现向东北推移的趋势；老年人口分布表现出正的空间相关性，高值集聚区分布在粤东地区东北部的区县，低值集聚区出现在粤东地区南部的区县.

The Change in the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging in Eastern Guangdong

The population census data of 19 counties or districts in Eastern Guangdong in 1990, 2000 and 2010 are chosen to calculate the coefficient of aged population, the aged population dependency ratio and the density of aged population of each of these counties or districts. The spatial autocorrelation analysis method and the population center model are used to make a preliminary study of the change in the spatial pattern of population aging in Eastern Guangdong. The purpose is to deepen peoples understanding of the characteristics of population aging in the region and provide reference for the formulation of population optimization measures. The results are as follows. First, Eastern Guangdong has entered the preliminary stage of an aged society. Second, the aged population are unevenly distributed in this region, and there are big differences between the counties or districts. Third, the center of aged population shows a trend of moving to the northeast. Fourth, the aged population distribution shows positive spatial correlation, with higher concentration in the northeastern part of Eastern Guangdong and lower concentration in the southern part.