韶关市城市化进程与发展趋势研究

城市化是区域经济发展和社会进步的重要标志.基于1949-2010年的时间序列数据和第六次全国人口普查资料,运用SPSS17.0社会统计软件,从发展阶段、影响因素和模型预测三个方面对韶关市城市化进程与发展趋势进行了分析.结果表明：韶关城市化正处于并将长期处于诺瑟姆“S”曲线的第二个阶段,即加速发展阶段;韶关城市化受到人均GDP、城镇居民可支配收入等经济增长因素和一、二、三产业产值结构、就业结构的重大影响.进一步加快产业结构转型,提升工业经济和现代服务业在区域经济中的地位和作用,着力于以韶关市区和以县城为重点的县域经济和城镇化建设,对于韶关未来城市化进程有着积极的推动作用.

Study on development trend and urbanization of Shaoguan,Guangdong

Urbanization is an important symbol of regional economic development and social progress. Based on the time series data of 1949-2010 and the sixth national population census data, using SPSS17.0 statistical software of society, from the stage of development, influencing factors and prediction model of the three aspects, the process of urbanization and the development trend of Shaoguan are analyzed. The results shows that： Shaoguan is being in long-term and Northam ＂S＂ curve second stages, namely the stage of accelerated development of urbanization; and the process of urbanization and the development trend of Shaoguan is materially affecting by GDP per capita, urban residents economic growth income, and the first, the second and the third layers of industrial output value structure, and employment structure. It should accelerate the transformation of industrial structure, highlight the status and role of the industrial economy and modern service industry in the regional economy, and focus on the construction of county economy and urbanization in Shaoguan city, which is good for the future urbanization of Shaoguan city.