地球系统科学模拟有关重大问题

从20世纪70年代开始,科学家们已经开始把大气、海洋、冰雪和陆面四个圈层作为一个整体来考虑,既研究各圈层内部的物理过程也研究其间的相互作用,这实际上是一个物理气候系统.进入21世纪,人们的视野从物理气候系统扩展到了地球系统,进一步考虑生态系统、空间天气和固体地球系统,通过研究圈层内部的物理、化学和生物地球化学过程以及圈层之间的能量、动量和物质交换来了解地球能量过程、生态过程和新陈代谢过程的运行规律.人们越来越重视诸如碳、氮循环等生物地球化学耦合过程在气候系统中的作用及人类活动对这些循环过程的影响.地球系统模式基于地球各圈层中的物理、化学和生物过程建立起来的数学方程组,然后用数值计算方法求解,编制成一种大型综合性计算程序.地球系统模式是迄今为止最复杂和最具综合性的科学数值模拟工具,是地球系统科学理论和知识的集大成.地球系统模式的先进性,体现了一个国家在地球系统科学研究的核心竞争力,是衡量一个国家地球科学研究综合水平的重要指标.建成国际领先的地球系统模式对大幅度提升我国在地球系统科学领域的水平具有不可替代的作用.本文概述了地球系统数值模拟研究的科学意义、国家需求、国际发展趋势、我国已经取得的成就和未来的发展目标和任务.

The earth system simulation

From 1970s, the climate system has been studied as a whole by considering the coupled atmosphere-ocean- cryosphere-land surface physical system. Beginning from early 2000s, coupling between the physical climate system processes and biogeochemical processes has been one of the most important research focuses. This is because that the biogeochemical processes such as the carbon cycle and nitrogen cycle plays very important roles on the climate and environmental changes. Therefore, there have been great efforts to develop numerical models to simulate the above processes in the coupled earth system. There numerical models are the so-called earth system models. The simulations are performed by numerical integrations in the supercomputers. The earth system model is the most complex one in natural science numerical models, reflecting the comprehensive expressions of the earth system knowledge, and is the pacemaker of the earth science advances in different countries and groups. The earth system model is the most important tool for the earth system science development. This paper discusses the scientific background, application demands, the scientific achievements in China, and the future objectives and tasks.