信息的滞后性诱导传染病的周期爆发

通常情况下,一种传染病的爆发往往会引起人们某种行为方式的改变,如减少外出、接种疫苗、注意卫生等,这些行为方式的改变又会对疾病的传播方式和控制效果产生很大影响.为了刻画这类行为方式改变的影响,在本文中提出一个改进的SIRS传播模型：易感染者可以处于两种状态——无保护态（Su）和保护态（Sp）.易感染个体根据对疾病风险的估计在无保护态和保护态之间不断切换,从Su到Sp的转移概率随着感染人数的增加而增加,反之,从Sp到Su的转移概率随着感染人数的增加而减小.同时,我们假设个体对风险的估计依赖于他们对疾病风险信息的了解程度.通过Monte-Carlo和MarkovChain方法,发现对传染病风险判断的滞后性会导致传染病的周期爆发.

Time-delayed information can induce the periodic outbreaks of infectious diseases

Typically,an outbreak of infectious disease can change the behaviors of people,such as reducing out,taking vaccination,paying attention to hygiene,etc.These behavioral changes have the significant influences on the transmissions of diseases and the control effects.In order to characterize the impacts of these behavioral changes,in this paper,we propose an improved SIRS epidemic model,where susceptible individuals can be divided into two different states—unprotected state（Su） and protected state（Sp）.Susceptible individuals switch between unprotected state and protected state relying on their perceived risk of diseases.The transition probability from Su to Sp increases with the number of infections they acquired.On the contrary,the transition probability from Sp to Su decreases with the number of infections they acquired.Meanwhile,we assume that perceived risk of diseases estimated by people depends on the information of disease that they acquired.By Monte-Carlo method and Markov chain method,we find that the time-delayed information of diseases can induce the periodic outbreaks of infectious diseases.