东莞市税收收入与经济增长关系的实证研究

利用计量经济学方法分析了东莞近10年的经济数据,结果表明：经济增长是东莞税收增长的决定因素,但非经济增长因素对税收增长亦有重要的促进作用;东莞目前的宏观税负处于经济增长可承受范围内,未对经济增长造成阻碍;东莞税收弹性指标协调。在此基础上,提出了促进东莞税收持续增长的3点建议：壮大税源经济,提高税源质量;优化第三产业结构,开辟新兴税源;加强税收征管,强化税源控制。

An Empirical Study of Tax and Economic Growth in Dongguan

This paper uses methods of econometrics to analyze economic data of Dongguans recent 10 years.The result shows that:economic growth is the determinant of revenue growth in Dongguan,but non-economic growth factors on tax growth also have stimulative effect;the macro tax of Dongguan may withstand within the range in economic growth;and the tax elasticity index is coordinate.On this basis,this paper puts forward three suggestions to promote the steady growth of revenue:growing tax sources economy to improve the quality of sources,optimizing structure of the third industry,and strengthening tax collection.