基于系统动力学的区块链技术扩散机制研究

区块链技术凭借其去中心化、去信任化及不可篡改等优势,一经提出便引起了学术界和业界的广泛关注。然而区块链技术发展中也遇到了如政府监管难、行业标准化不完善及违规违法行为频发等挑战。社会各界对于区块链技术发展前景各执己见,政府提出的各类扶植与管制政策对区块链技术发展的影响及其程度尚不明确。基于此,对区块链这一典型的共性技术扩散与演化趋势进行模拟研究。首先,结合Bass技术创新扩散模型的理论基础和区块链的特点筛选了影响区块链技术扩散的因素;其次,构建了区块链技术扩散的系统动力学模型,在参数估计的基础上对三种不同政策组合下区块链技术扩散机制进行模拟,分析了不同政策环境下区块链技术发展趋势;最后,依据模拟结果提出了引导区块链技术发展的政策建议。

Research on Blockchain Technology Diffusion Mechanism Based on System Dynamics

With its advantages of decentralization,being trustless and non-tampering,blockchain technology has attracted extensive attention from the academia and the industry since it was proposed.However,the development of blockchain technology also faces challenges such as difficult government supervision,imperfect industry standardization and frequent violations of laws and regulations.Various sectors of society hold different views on the development prospect of blockchain technology,and the influence and the influencing degree of various support and control policies put forward by the government on the development of blockchain technology are still unclear.This paper conducts simulation research on the diffusion and evolution trend of blockchain,a typical generic technology.First,based on the theoretical basis of Bass technology innovation diffusion model and the characteristics of blockchain,factors affecting the diffusion of blockchain technology are screened.Second,a system dynamics model for the diffusion of blockchain technology is built.Based on parameter estimation,the diffusion mechanism of blockchain technology under three different policy combinations is simulated,and the development trend of blockchain technology under different policy environments is analyzed.Finally,policy suggestions to guide the development of blockchain technology are put forward according to the simulation results.